Brazil’s October 4 presidential election will decide more than who holds the presidency. Voters will also choose all 27 state governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead a close race, but neither recent poll puts either candidate near the 50% plus one of valid votes needed to win outright.
A Quaest poll released Monday gave Lula 39% and Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, 34%. Commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo, the poll surveyed 2,400 people nationwide from Thursday to Sunday, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4%, Renan Santos got 3% and Romeu Zema 1%. Five percent were undecided; 10% said they’d cast a blank or spoiled ballot or abstain. A possible October 25 runoff was tied at 42%.
A separate Nexus poll for BTG Pactual put Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37% when respondents saw the candidate list. In the poll’s projected runoff, Lula led 46% to 44%, within the margin of error. Quaest found that 49% disapproved of the government’s performance and 46% approved.
The Sovereignty Dispute
Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month, Lula said, “Brazil does not fit into anyone’s backyard,” and warned against “foreign interference” in the election. His allies say efforts to interfere are already underway. They’ve also raised concerns that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize the result if Lula wins.
They point to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks blaming Lula for the failure of trade negotiations that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods. They also cite a failed effort by US officials to travel to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity,” according to the US State Department. The department didn’t respond to a request for comment and has denied previous accusations of election interference by Lula’s government.
Last week, 31 Democrats in Congress, including US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, urged Rubio to respect Brazil’s election result. Their letter expressed “grave concern” over what it called a “sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil.” Before the 2022 election, former President Joe Biden sent his Central Intelligence Agency director to tell former President Bolsonaro not to mess with elections, sources told Reuters at the time. The United States was among the first countries to recognize the result.
Regional Stakes
The outcome could alter Brazil’s regional relationships and its role in international forums. Lula has strengthened ties with China, revived Brazil’s leadership role in the BRICS bloc of emerging nations and expanded engagement with Europe. Recent right-wing victories in South America and a confrontational relationship with the Trump administration have left him increasingly isolated in the Western Hemisphere, the report said.
Brazil’s political direction matters to Argentina, too. Brazil is Argentina’s main trading partner and the region’s largest economy, absorbing a large share of Argentina’s industrial exports, particularly automobiles. Bilateral trade exceeds US$12 billion a year, and Argentina usually runs a deficit because it imports manufactured industrial goods and vehicles. A shift in political alignment, protectionist policies or unilateral liberalization could disrupt trade. Who occupies the Planalto Palace will heavily shape Mercosur’s future, including whether it favors free-trade agreements or a more closed approach.
Campaign and Regional Alignments
Lula has cast Bolsonaro as a proxy for a broader right-wing movement, calling him a “nobody” in campaign speeches and sharing images linking him to Argentina’s President Javier Milei, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Bolsonaro is running in place of his father, who was arrested for leading a failed coup after losing to Lula in 2022.
Progressives in Washington see Lula as a “beacon of hope,” said Alex Main of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Santiago Cafiero, a congressman and former foreign minister, said, “If Lula wins, it will create a countercurrent to what has been taking hold in the region and show there is resistance to these right-wing winds.” Liberal governments in Europe that have supported Brazil’s progressive climate initiatives are watching the election as well. A European ambassador said human-rights violations or large-scale deforestation of the Amazon would make it “much more difficult” for Europe to engage with Brazil.