Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, counted 99.52% of polling stations and found neither Flávio Bolsonaro nor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had won more than half of valid votes, sending the presidential contest to a runoff. At 21:39 Brasília time on 4 October, Bolsonaro had 47.13%, or 55,960,302 votes, while Lula had 45.04%, or 53,484,316. The official tally leaves the country’s highest office to a contest between two political camps, while millions face the costs of decisions made far above them.
The TSE had counted 496,856 of 499,248 sections, leaving 2,392 uncounted. Those remaining sections had fewer than 770,000 registered voters; Bolsonaro would have needed more than 6.8 million additional valid votes, all for him, to reach 50%. The court hadn’t declared the final result, but neither candidate could win outright. They’re scheduled to meet again on Sunday, 25 October 2026.
The official count, the narrowing gap
The first reported numbers gave Bolsonaro 51.22% and Lula 40.66%, but covered only 17.22% of polling stations. As more sections reported, the gap shrank: it stood at 7.3 percentage points with 64.81% counted at 19:14 Brasília time, fell to 3.65 points by 20:40, then reached 2.09 points at 21:39. An early lead became a runoff as the count continued, with the TSE still responsible for the official result.
Regional returns showed a divided electorate. In completed results, Bolsonaro led in Paraná with 60% and the Federal District with 51%. Lula led in Bahia with 66%, Ceará with 63% and Pernambuco with 63%. Bolsonaro led São Paulo with 52%, Rio de Janeiro with 53%, and Minas Gerais with 48% to Lula’s 43%.
Polls showed that each of the two leading candidates faced rejection from roughly half of voters. Datafolha’s poll published on 3 October put Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes, with a margin of error of two points. Reuters reported that surveys showed the candidates roughly even in a likely runoff. The other candidates struggled to break through: later results put Augusto Cury at 2.90%, Renan Santos at 2.25%, Ronaldo Caiado at 2.19% and Romeu Zema at 0.27%.
Household strain beneath the campaign
The campaign offered little policy debate, despite concern about public finances and sluggish economic growth. Both leading candidates skipped major televised debates. Lula struggled to win over voters facing high living costs, heavy household debt, street crime and more pervasive gang activity, despite falling inequality and unemployment. Bolsonaro sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns.
Lula moved to ban online gambling, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families as the race tightened. Rising spending and public debt above 82% of GDP raised fiscal concerns, while the government cut its growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.0% and 2.3%. Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs, described the competing economic programs: “Lula would likely preserve a state-led model with only modest spending restraint; Bolsonaro would likely pursue a more market-friendly agenda centered on spending cuts, privatizations, concessions, and a stronger fiscal anchor.”
The runoff campaign begins at once. The other candidates will be courted for voters who accounted for about 7.6% of valid votes between Cury, Santos, Caiado and Zema. Whether those candidates endorse either finalist, and how their voters split, remains unknown in the reported account. No grassroots organizing or mutual-aid response appears in the account; it describes a pursuit of endorsements and votes inside the electoral contest.
Power beyond the ballot
The election also carries consequences for Brazil’s relations with Washington and for investors holding Brazilian assets. Bolsonaro pledged closer ties with the United States and Israel and welcomed the Trump administration’s designation of Brazil’s major gangs as terrorist groups, which Lula rejected. Trump hadn’t formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.
The campaign was shaped by Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and sentence of more than 27 years for plotting a coup after his 2022 election defeat. Flávio Bolsonaro promised to seek amnesty for his father. Trump called the case a “witch hunt” and imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly linking the tariffs to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial. Lula said Trump’s later tariffs were an attempt to sway the election and accused the Bolsonaros of being too eager to please Washington at Brazil’s expense.
Voters also elected all 513 members of the lower house and two-thirds of the Senate. Some lawmakers had pushed to impeach Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and Congress has gained greater influence in Brazilian politics since the 2016 impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff. The presidential ballot is only one part of the contest over who gets to exercise power.