Flávio Bolsonaro led Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 2.09 percentage points in Brazil’s first-round presidential vote. Neither won a majority, so the contest now moves to a runoff scheduled for 25 October. With 99.52% of polling stations counted at 21:39 Brasília time on 4 October, Bolsonaro had 47.13%, or 55,960,302 votes, and Lula had 45.04%, or 53,484,316, according to the electoral court, the TSE.
Voters must now choose between sharply different approaches to Brazil’s ties with Washington, public spending and political direction. Allegations of foreign interference, which the United States rejected, became a campaign issue. The TSE hasn’t declared a final result, but the remaining 2,392 sections had fewer than 770,000 registered voters; Bolsonaro would have needed more than 6.8 million additional valid votes, all for him, to reach 50%.
A close count, a national decision
The margin narrowed as more polling sections reported. At 18:13 Brasília time, with 17.22% counted, Bolsonaro had 51.22% of valid votes and Lula 40.66%. By 19:14, with 64.81% counted, the gap had fallen to 7.3 points. It stood at 3.65 points at 20:40 and 2.09 points at 21:39.
Regional returns showed a divided electorate. State tables pulled at 01:35 Lisbon time showed Bolsonaro leading in Paraná with 60%, the Federal District with 51%, São Paulo with 52%, Rio de Janeiro with 53%, and Minas Gerais with 48% to Lula’s 43%. Lula led in Bahia with 66%, Ceará with 63% and Pernambuco with 63%. The other candidates struggled to break through: later results put Augusto Cury at 2.90%, Renan Santos at 2.25%, Ronaldo Caiado at 2.19% and Romeu Zema at 0.27%.
Datafolha’s poll, published on 3 October, had put Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes, with a margin of error of two points. Reuters reported that surveys showed the candidates roughly even in a likely runoff. Polls showed both finalists rejected by roughly half of voters.
Washington, tariffs and claims of interference
Brazil’s external relationships became a direct point of dispute during the campaign. Bolsonaro pledged closer ties with the United States and Israel, and welcomed the Trump administration’s designation of Brazil’s major gangs as terrorist groups, a move Lula rejected. President Donald Trump hadn’t formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.
Lula’s allies warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize the result if Lula won. They pointed to a failed effort to send U.S. officials to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity,” according to the U.S. State Department. Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged U.S. and Russian interference before the election, Reuters reported. The United States rejected claims that it interfered in Brazil’s affairs. Lula called the vote a choice between “democracy and denialism” and repeatedly warned of foreign interference.
The dispute also followed U.S. tariffs linked to Jair Bolsonaro’s case. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly tying it to the trial after the Bolsonaro family lobbied for Brazil’s Supreme Court to drop the charges. This year, Trump imposed new tariffs over alleged unfair trade practices. Lula called the measures an attempt to sway the election and said the Bolsonaros were too eager to please Washington at Brazil’s expense.
Household pressures and institutional stakes
Voters weighed the foreign-policy dispute alongside living costs, household debt, street crime and gang activity. Lula sought a fourth term after governing from 2003 to 2010 and serving as president since 2023. As the race tightened, he expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families, while moving to ban online gambling. Bolsonaro sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns.
Policy debate barely featured in the campaign, despite concern about public finances and sluggish growth. Both leading candidates skipped major televised debates. Public debt exceeded 82% of GDP, and the government cut its growth forecasts to 2.0% for this year and 2.3% for next year. “Lula would likely preserve a state-led model with only modest spending restraint; Bolsonaro would likely pursue a more market-friendly agenda centered on spending cuts, privatizations, concessions, and a stronger fiscal anchor,” said Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs.
Voters also elected all 513 members of the lower house and two-thirds of the Senate. Congress has gained greater influence in Brazilian politics since the 2016 impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff, and some lawmakers had pushed to impeach Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The runoff campaign began at once. Voters who backed the other candidates—about 7.6% of valid votes between Cury, Santos, Caiado and Zema—became a focus for the finalists.