Brazil Runoff Debate Puts Debt, Work and Public Wealth on the Line

Flávio Bolsonaro pledged to free more than R$200 billion from Brazil’s federal budget to pay down government debt. He also proposed that the state buy debts from banks and freeze payments. The announcement came at his first face-to-face runoff debate with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who argued for distributing money across households and expanding social inclusion.

The Band TV debate took place in São Paulo on Sunday, October 18. Candidates discussed debt, food prices, public spending, public security and healthcare. The runoff is scheduled for October 25.

Debt and public resources

Flávio, of the Liberal Party (PL), called public debt of R$11 trillion, about US$2.2 trillion, a “negative record.” He claimed his first-round lead had already pushed future interest rates down by 2%. He said his budget proposal would help pay down the debt. Correio Braziliense reported that the proposed payment freeze would last six months for individuals and one year for companies.

Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), defended his governments’ economic record. He said Brazil won two investment-grade credit ratings under his administrations and was close to regaining that status. Brazil repaid a US$30 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund and now held US$270 billion in reserves, he said. Lula argued that distributing money across households drives growth. He described his economic model as producing the largest social inclusion programme in the country’s history.

Lula asked whether Flávio would copy Argentine President Javier Milei’s spending cuts, saying, “borrow Milei’s chainsaw.” Flávio didn’t answer directly; he asked what Lula’s own model was. Lula also asked whether Flávio would hand Brazil’s natural resources to the United States and accused him of planning to privatise state oil company Petrobras. Flávio didn’t directly respond to that allegation in the account of the debate.

Work, services and security

Flávio said he had changed his mind about ending the 6×1 work schedule—six days of work followed by one day of rest—after listening to voters. Lula said Flávio had never worked a regular job and didn’t know the world of work. He added that his opponent had never used public healthcare or taken a bus. “My opponent only knows about buses from books. He has never even stepped foot on one. He has no idea what the world of work is like.”

Public security opened the debate. Both candidates presented plans to confront organised crime factions. Flávio described a “loss of sovereignty” in neighbourhoods controlled by drug trafficking and said: “The streets will be ours again and not those criminals’.” He also reiterated a proposal to create a Ministry of Prosperity and urged voters to vote “without fear.”

The candidates often traded accusations involving family members, including the INSS pension-fraud scandal and the Banco Master affair. On Sunday, Brazil’s federal police asked the Supreme Court to open an investigation into Flávio over a money-laundering accusation involving a lawyer close to him. Flávio denied wrongdoing. Authorities were also investigating him over links to Daniel Vorcaro, a disgraced former banker who financed a film about Jair Bolsonaro’s life.

Voters, polling and turnout

Fact-checkers at Folha de S.Paulo found incorrect or exaggerated claims by both candidates. Folha said Flávio’s R$7 billion figure for trips by Lula and first lady Rosângela “Janja” Lula da Silva covered federal travel by many government bodies, not just the couple’s trips. It also said Lula was wrong to claim Brazil’s GDP did not grow by more than 3% a year between his leaving office in 2010 and returning in 2023.

The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released October 19 put Flávio at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes, within the poll’s 2-point margin of error. Researchers interviewed 2,002 voters on October 16, 17 and 18. More than 33 million people, or 21% of the electorate, did not vote in the first round on October 4. That marked the highest first-round abstention rate since 1998.

José Tainan, a 36-year-old kitchen assistant from Rio de Janeiro’s Penha complex of favelas, said corruption was the main reason he stopped voting. “There are no good options. Neither one of them suits me. I would rather justify why I didn’t vote.” Voting is mandatory for citizens aged 18 to 70. Those who fail to vote without a valid reason face a small fine.

Supporters rallied in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and other cities. Lula supporters gathered at Rio’s Copacabana Beach, in Brasília and in 16 other state capitals, while Bolsonaro supporters rallied on São Paulo’s Paulista Avenue. A second debate was scheduled for Friday, October 23, on TV Globo.