Brazil’s electoral court reversed itself within hours on Sunday. Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), ordered WhatsApp to remove “Exército do Lula,” a pro-Lula channel with more than 3.4 million members. Later that day, Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, the court’s inspector-general, provisionally restored it, with 14 days remaining before the Oct. 25 runoff.
The reversal came alongside two other developments: a separate ruling removed a Lula campaign ad from the air, and a new Ipespe poll showed challenger Flávio Bolsonaro ahead. Three decisions in one weekend, each affecting how millions of Brazilians get information before voting.
A Channel Switched Off, Then On
Nunes Marques gave WhatsApp, owned by Meta Platforms, three hours to disable the channel. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign sought the suspension, alleging that the channel spread disinformation about cuts to Bolsa Família cash transfers and pensions. Nunes Marques said it repeated claims the court had already ruled untrue, including that Flávio favoured dropping Our Lady of Aparecida as Brazil’s patron saint. He’s a Supreme Court justice whom Jair Bolsonaro appointed in 2020.
Cueva, a Superior Court of Justice member and rapporteur of the case, took a narrower view. Suspending an entire channel, he said, “exige demonstração da extensão e da reiteração das condutas”—proof of how widespread and repeated the conduct is. He said authorities must first show that milder measures against individual posts fall short, and noted that the suspension came before evidence-gathering had finished. He left open the possibility of reconsidering if new facts justified a stricter measure.
Federal deputy André Janones, who created the channel, had already reacted before it returned. “A censura já começou,” he said. In São Paulo, Lula told journalists he wouldn’t accept “intromissão indevida da Justiça Eleitoral.” By Sunday evening, no one knew whether WhatsApp had reactivated the channel, and the TSE hadn’t published a note on Cueva’s decision. The full bench has yet to decide whether the channel can remain open through the runoff.
On Oct. 10, the TSE said Cueva had admitted Flávio’s abuse case against Lula, running mate Geraldo Alckmin and Janones. The case seeks to strip Lula and Alckmin of their registration and suspend the channel. The court stressed that admitting the case doesn’t mean the allegations are true. Flávio has 72 hours to provide more information; the defendants have five days to respond.
An Ad Pulled From Public Airtime
On Saturday, Nunes Marques also suspended a Lula campaign ad through a provisional injunction. The ad ran in free, publicly funded campaign airtime and targeted Flávio and his running mate, Alfredo Gaspar. It contrasted Lula’s “duo of experience” with a “duo of scandals,” showed a headline about funding for Dark Horse, a film about Jair Bolsonaro, and included audio mentioning money laundering. Press reports have linked the film’s financing to Daniel Vorcaro, the banker who controlled the failed lender Banco Master.
Nunes Marques ruled that the combination could lead voters to believe an accusation had been proven. The ad also cited an allegation involving the sexual abuse of a minor against Gaspar, but didn’t say that Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes shelved a request to investigate him on Oct. 6. Nunes Marques wrote that showing an old headline “as if it were current” could imply an open inquiry. The full court can review the injunction, which doesn’t end any police inquiry into the film’s funding. Lula’s campaign hadn’t publicly commented on whether it would appeal.
The court didn’t act only against the left. Justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze ordered Gaspar to delete an Instagram video accusing Lula of seeking 1 billion reais in bribes. Lula denied the accusation, and Bellizze found too little evidence. Still, this marked the second Lula ad or jingle suspended; Nunes Marques halted a radio jingle on Sept. 22, 19 days before Sunday.
The Numbers Behind the Fight
The poll helps explain why each message matters. Ipespe, working with the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers, put Flávio at 52.7% of valid votes and Lula at 47.3%. Among all respondents, 49% chose Flávio and 44% Lula, while 5% voted blank or spoiled and 3% were undecided. The telephone survey of 1,500 voters, conducted Oct. 6 to 8, has a 2.6-point margin of error. Datafolha, AtlasIntel and PoderData/Aya also showed Flávio ahead, with 52%, 52.8% and 53% of valid votes.
The divisions are stark. Lula leads 63% to 29% in the Northeast; Flávio leads 63% to 30% in the South and 52% to 40% in the Southeast. Evangelicals support Flávio 61% to 30%, while women favour Lula 49% to 44%. Lula’s government has 43% approval and 50% disapproval, and 53% describe the economy as bad or very bad. Respondents also rated Flávio’s WhatsApp presence above Lula’s, 44% to 30%.
Prediction markets, which involve bets rather than polls, put Flávio near 86% to 88%. Ipespe cautioned that polls can’t fully account for abstention, which can decide a close race.
Why This Matters: Brazil’s runoff is being fought in courtrooms as much as at ballot boxes. Within 24 hours, the electoral court ordered a 3.4-million-member channel shut, reversed that order, and removed a campaign ad from free public airtime, while also ordering a video aimed at Lula taken down. The decisions raise a hard question for democratic institutions: how can courts curb disinformation without appearing to tilt a close race? The TSE president’s appointment by the father of Lula’s opponent, followed by a colleague’s quick narrowing of his order, will sharpen scrutiny of whether standards are applied evenly. For voters using social media and public airtime to judge candidates and benefits like Bolsa Família, clear, consistent and transparent rulings matter. The full TSE bench has yet to settle the question, with the runoff 14 days away.