Brazil’s electoral court spent Sunday reversing itself over a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel with more than 3.4 million members. In a separate ruling, it pulled a Lula campaign ad off the air, while a new Ipespe poll put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead with two weeks left before the Oct. 25 runoff.
Courts Reverse Course on a 3.4 Million-Member Channel
Earlier Sunday, Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), ordered WhatsApp, owned by Meta Platforms, to suspend “Exército do Lula.” The platform had three hours to disable it. Federal deputy André Janones of Minas Gerais, who represents Rede Sustentabilidade, created the channel to support Lula.
Then the court reversed course. Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, the court’s inspector-general and rapporteur of the case, provisionally restored the channel until the full bench rules. He said suspending an entire channel “exige demonstração da extensão e da reiteração das condutas” — proof of how widespread and repeated the conduct is. Milder measures against individual posts, he said, must first be shown to fall short, and the suspension came before evidence-gathering had finished. He left open the possibility of reconsidering if new facts justified a stricter measure.
By Sunday evening, nobody knew whether WhatsApp had reactivated the channel. The TSE hadn’t published a note on Cueva’s decision.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign sought the suspension, alleging the channel spread disinformation about cuts to Bolsa Família cash transfers and pensions. Nunes Marques said it repeated content the court had already judged untrue, including a claim that Flávio favoured dropping Our Lady of Aparecida as Brazil’s patron saint.
The political reaction came swiftly. “A censura já começou,” Janones said, meaning censorship has begun. Lula told journalists in São Paulo he wouldn’t accept “intromissão indevida da Justiça Eleitoral” — undue interference by the electoral court. His campaign called the suspension a cause of “estranheza e revolta,” or surprise and outrage.
A separate case is moving forward. On Oct. 10, the TSE said Cueva had admitted Flávio’s abuse case against Lula, running mate Geraldo Alckmin and Janones. The filing seeks to strip Lula and Alckmin of their registration and suspend the channel. Cueva gave Flávio 72 hours to provide more information and the defendants five days to file a defence. The court stressed that admitting the case doesn’t mean the allegations are true.
A Campaign Ad Suspended Under Electoral Law
On Saturday, Oct. 10, Nunes Marques issued a provisional injunction suspending a Lula campaign advertisement, 15 days before the runoff. The ad ran in free, publicly funded campaign airtime, which resumed Oct. 9. It targeted Flávio and his running mate, Alfredo Gaspar, both of the Liberal Party (PL).
The ad contrasted Lula’s ticket, billed as the “duo of experience,” with a “duo of scandals.” It displayed a headline about funding for Dark Horse, a film about Jair Bolsonaro, and included audio mentioning money laundering. Nunes Marques ruled that the combination could lead voters to believe an accusation had been proven. Press reports have linked the film’s financing to Daniel Vorcaro, the banker who controlled the failed lender Banco Master.
The ad also cited an allegation involving the sexual abuse of a minor against Gaspar. It didn’t say Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes shelved a request to investigate him on Oct. 6 — five days before Sunday. Nunes Marques wrote that showing an old headline “as if it were current” without mentioning the shelving could suggest an open inquiry. He cited an electoral-law ban on slander and defamation in campaign material.
The injunction is provisional, and the full court can review it. It doesn’t end any police inquiry into the film’s funding. As of Sunday afternoon, the court hadn’t published the decision, and Lula’s campaign hadn’t commented publicly or said whether it would appeal.
This was the second such order against the Lula campaign. On Sept. 22, 19 days before Sunday, Nunes Marques suspended a Lula radio jingle linking Flávio to several scandals. The court also ruled against Gaspar: Justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze ordered him to delete an Instagram video accusing Lula of seeking 1 billion reais, about US$200 million, in bribes. Lula denied it, and Bellizze found too little evidence.
The Poll Numbers
An Ipespe poll released Saturday gave Flávio 52.7% of valid votes to Lula’s 47.3%. Ipespe and Abrapel, the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers, surveyed 1,500 voters aged 16 and over by telephone from Oct. 6 to Oct. 8. Among all respondents, 49% picked Flávio and 44% Lula; 5% said blank or spoiled, and 3% were undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 points either way. Among the 88% who said they’d certainly vote, Flávio led 53.1% to 46.9%.
The regional split is stark. Lula led 63% to 29% in the Northeast. Flávio led 63% to 30% in the South and 52% to 40% in the Southeast, home to São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Evangelicals backed Flávio 61% to 30%, while women favoured Lula 49% to 44%.
Voters rated Flávio’s TV and radio campaign better than Lula’s, 43% to 34%, and his WhatsApp presence better, 44% to 30%. “Corruption and the crisis at the Supreme Court” was the issue most cited for first-round votes, at 24%, ahead of the economy, jobs and prices at 17%. Lula’s government stood at 43% approval and 50% disapproval, and 53% called the economy bad or very bad. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term.
Other post-first-round surveys point the same way: Datafolha had Flávio at 52% of valid votes, AtlasIntel 52.8% and PoderData/Aya 53%. Prediction markets, which are bets and not polls, put Flávio near 86% to 88%.
Why This Matters:
A court president ordered a 3.4 million-member channel shut, and a colleague reversed him hours later. That shows how much discretion Brazil’s electoral judges hold over campaign speech, and how unpredictable its use can be. Nunes Marques’s own wording — that suspending a channel needs proof of repeated conduct — cuts both ways in how restraint is applied. Voters heading into the Oct. 25 runoff face a campaign where judges, not just candidates, shape what’s said. Meanwhile, the poll’s top concerns, corruption, a Supreme Court crisis and a bad economy, suggest the electorate is weighing institutional trust and household finances. New polls are due Tuesday and Wednesday. They’ll show whether court rulings move the numbers.