Brazil’s electoral court restored a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel on Sunday, hours after the Superior Electoral Court’s president ordered the platform to suspend it. The dispute unfolded as an Ipespe poll put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva before the Oct. 25 runoff. The channel has more than 3.4 million members.
Court Orders and Campaign Speech
Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, the electoral court’s inspector-general and rapporteur of the case, provisionally restored “Exército do Lula” until the court’s full bench rules. Federal deputy André Janones, who represents Minas Gerais for Rede Sustentabilidade, created the channel to support Lula. By Sunday evening, it wasn’t clear whether WhatsApp had reactivated it, and the TSE hadn’t published a note on Cueva’s decision.
Earlier Sunday, Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), ordered WhatsApp, owned by Meta Platforms, to suspend the channel. Nunes Marques said it repeated content the court had already judged untrue, including a claim that Flávio favoured dropping Our Lady of Aparecida as Brazil’s patron saint.
Cueva said suspending an entire channel “exige demonstração da extensão e da reiteração das condutas”—proof of how widespread and repeated the conduct is. He said the court must first show that milder measures against individual posts fall short, and noted that the suspension came before evidence-gathering had finished. He left open the possibility of reconsidering the restoration if new facts justified a stricter measure.
Flávio’s campaign sought the suspension, alleging that the channel spread disinformation about cuts to Bolsa Família cash transfers and pensions. Flávio is a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and Lula’s opponent in the runoff. Lula leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
The TSE said Cueva had admitted Flávio’s abuse case against Lula, running mate Geraldo Alckmin and Janones. The filing seeks to strip Lula and Alckmin of their registration and suspend the channel. The court stressed that admitting the case doesn’t mean the allegations are true. The full bench hadn’t decided whether the channel could remain open through the runoff. It also wasn’t clear when it would rule or whether Flávio’s campaign would challenge the reversal.
Janones said, “A censura já começou” (“censorship has already begun”). Lula told journalists in São Paulo he wouldn’t accept “intromissão indevida da Justiça Eleitoral” (“undue interference by the electoral court”). Lula’s campaign called the suspension a cause of “estranheza e revolta” (“surprise and outrage”).
Ad Ruling and Poll Results
Separately, Nunes Marques issued a provisional injunction suspending a Lula campaign ad on Saturday. The ad targeted Flávio and his running mate, Alfredo Gaspar, both members of the PL, and ran in free, publicly funded campaign airtime. Nunes Marques ruled that it could mislead voters. It contrasted Lula’s ticket, described as the “duo of experience,” with a “duo of scandals,” displayed a headline about funding for Dark Horse, a film about Jair Bolsonaro, and included audio mentioning money laundering.
The judge said that combination could lead voters to believe an accusation had been proven. Press reports have linked the film’s financing to Daniel Vorcaro, the banker who controlled the failed lender Banco Master. The ad also cited an allegation involving the sexual abuse of a minor against Gaspar but didn’t say that Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes shelved a request to investigate him on Oct. 6. Nunes Marques wrote that showing an old headline “as if it were current” without mentioning the shelving could suggest an open inquiry. The full court could review the injunction, which didn’t end any police inquiry into the film’s funding.
Ipespe’s poll, released Saturday, gave Flávio 52.7% of valid votes to Lula’s 47.3%. Ipespe and Abrapel, the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers, surveyed 1,500 voters aged 16 and over by telephone from Oct. 6 to Oct. 8. Asked to choose between the candidates, 49% picked Flávio and 44% Lula; 5% said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot, and 3% were undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 percentage points either way, at 95.45% confidence. The poll was registered with the TSE under protocol BR-00933/2026.
Among respondents who said they would certainly vote, Flávio had 53.1% of valid votes and Lula 46.9%. Ipespe found Lula ahead 63% to 29% in the Northeast, while Flávio led 63% to 30% in the South and 52% to 40% in the Southeast. Evangelicals backed Flávio 61% to 30%, while women favoured Lula 49% to 44%.
Respondents rated Flávio’s TV and radio campaign better than Lula’s, 43% to 34%, and his WhatsApp presence better, 44% to 30%. “Corruption and the crisis at the Supreme Court” was the issue most cited for first-round votes, at 24%; the economy, jobs and prices followed at 17%. “Sovereignty and Trump’s attitudes” was the main issue for 6% overall and 13% among Lula’s first-round voters. Lula’s government had 43% approval and 50% disapproval, while 53% called the economy bad or very bad.
The runoff is set for Sunday, Oct. 25. Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time. Ipespe said polls can’t fully capture abstention, which can decide a close race, and its survey isn’t an election result.