Brazil’s duties on specific steel imports helped prompt ArcelorMittal’s plan to invest more than R$10 billion, about US$1.9 billion, in the country. Jorge Oliveira, chief executive of ArcelorMittal Brasil, said measures that reduced imports helped shape the company’s investment decision. “You can’t say the measures didn’t help. They did,” Oliveira told Folha de S.Paulo on Oct. 1.
Brazil didn’t ban Chinese steel. It imposed duties on particular products after investigations found sales below fair value, known as dumping, and harm to local producers. The policy has changed the conditions in which steelmakers compete. Now a major corporation says it’s prepared to invest while imports remain central to its growth.
A market shaped by state policy
In February, Brazil imposed definitive anti-dumping duties lasting up to five years on cold-rolled flat steel from China. The country also applies a 25% tariff on steel imports above set quotas. Steel imports fell 17.6% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to Instituto Aço Brasil. Imports represented more than 25% of the market in January and about 16% in July and August, Folha reported, citing ministry data.
The figures move in both directions over time. In 2025, rolled-steel imports rose 20.5% to 5.7 million tonnes, according to company figures cited by Brasil 247. China produces 51.9% of global crude steel, while Brazil accounts for 1.8%, Worldsteel figures cited by Folha show. Brazil ranks as the world’s ninth-largest crude-steel producer.
ArcelorMittal says imports remain “far from a bearable level.” Oliveira put that level at about 10% of the market, which he called the historical average. “We are prepared to invest, as long as the import equation is right for our growth,” he said. The company’s terms are plain: its investment plan depends on market conditions it considers acceptable.
Billions on the table, projects at different stages
About half of the planned investment would go to the Tubarão flat-steel plant in Serra, Espírito Santo. The confirmed project, first announced in February 2025, carries a value of R$4 billion to R$5 billion, about US$770 million to US$960 million. It would add a cold-strip mill and a continuous coating line capable of producing 560,000 tonnes a year.
A second proposal would expand the plant at Pecém, a port and industrial complex in Ceará in Brazil’s northeast. The plant currently makes slabs, a semi-finished product; the expansion would turn them into coils for Brazilian carmakers and builders. The company was completing a feasibility study. Brasil 247, citing Bloomberg Línea, put the project at about R$5 billion, or US$960 million, with a decision due by the end of 2026. Unlike Tubarão, Pecém still depends on the study, demand and trade policy.
The proposed projects follow R$25 billion, about US$4.8 billion, invested in Brazil under a programme that began in 2022. ArcelorMittal’s Brazilian revenue reached US$3.15 billion in the second quarter, up 12.2% from the first quarter. Brazil is the company’s second-largest market after the United States.
The election won’t decide the investment alone
About 37% of ArcelorMittal’s Brazilian business serves construction, which faces higher costs and high interest rates; 25% serves carmakers. Carmakers also face competition from Chinese cars, many of which arrive as kits of imported parts and use no Brazilian steel. Those industries connect directly to the company’s planned production, while its decision turns on trade policy, demand and costs.
A presidential election is scheduled for Sunday. Oliveira took no side in it, saying the company’s decision is long-term and “goes beyond governments.” He urged the next government to reduce the “Custo Brasil,” described as the extra cost of doing business, and called for cheaper gas and power. ArcelorMittal is one of the world’s largest steelmakers and the Indian Mittal family controls it. The state has adjusted tariffs; the company is weighing where billions go. Its chief executive says the investment depends on whether the import equation works for the corporation.