ArcelorMittal plans to invest more than R$10 billion, about US$1.9 billion, in Brazil in the coming years. The company’s Brazilian chief executive directly links the plan to anti-dumping duties that have cut steel imports, many from China. “You can’t say the measures didn’t help. They did,” Jorge Oliveira, chief executive of ArcelorMittal Brasil, told Folha de S.Paulo on Oct. 1.
The statement gives public trade enforcement a concrete result. It also comes days before a presidential election scheduled for Sunday.
What the Money Would Build
About half the investment is earmarked for the Tubarão flat-steel plant in Serra, Espírito Santo. The project would add a cold-strip mill and a continuous coating line able to produce 560,000 tonnes a year. First announced in February 2025, the project is described as confirmed and valued at R$4 billion to R$5 billion, about US$770 million to US$960 million.
The second project is less certain. It would expand the plant at Pecém, a port and industrial complex in Ceará in Brazil’s northeast. The plant makes slabs, a semi-finished product, today. An expansion would turn them into coils for Brazilian carmakers and builders. The company was in the final stage of a feasibility study. Brasil 247, citing Bloomberg Línea, put the project at about R$5 billion, or US$960 million, with a decision due by the end of 2026.
Both proposals follow R$25 billion, about US$4.8 billion, invested in Brazil under a programme begun in 2022.
Duties, Not a Ban
Brazil didn’t ban Chinese steel. Regulators imposed duties on specific products after investigations found sales below fair value, known as dumping, and harm to local producers. In February, regulators imposed definitive anti-dumping duties lasting up to five years on cold-rolled flat steel from China. Brazil also applies a 25% tariff on steel imports above set quotas.
The numbers moved. Steel imports fell 17.6% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to Instituto Aço Brasil. Imports accounted for more than 25% of the market in January and about 16% in July and August, Folha reported, citing ministry data. The pressure had been building. In 2025, rolled-steel imports rose 20.5% to 5.7 million tonnes, according to company figures cited by Brasil 247.
Oliveira said imports remained “far from a bearable level,” which he put at about 10% of the market, the historical average. “We are prepared to invest, as long as the import equation is right for our growth,” he said. He added that the company’s decision “is long-term and goes beyond governments.” He took no side in the election.
The Customers Under Strain
Brazil is ArcelorMittal’s second-largest market after the United States. Its Brazilian revenue reached US$3.15 billion in the second quarter, up 12.2% from the first quarter. About 37% of that business serves construction, a sector facing higher costs and high interest rates. Another 25% serves carmakers, which compete with Chinese cars. Many arrive as kits of imported parts and use no Brazilian steel.
Oliveira urged the next government to reduce the “Custo Brasil,” described as the extra cost of doing business, and called for cheaper gas and power. Only the Tubarão project is confirmed. Pecém still depends on the study, demand and trade policy. ArcelorMittal is one of the world’s largest steelmakers and the Indian Mittal family controls it. Brazil is the world’s ninth-largest crude-steel producer at 1.8% of global output, while China produces 51.9%, according to Worldsteel figures cited by Folha.
Why This Matters: The investment pledge shows what targeted, rules-based trade enforcement can do when it rests on investigations rather than blanket bans. Imports fell, and a company that controls much of Brazil’s flat-steel supply is now putting money behind new capacity. But the commitments are conditional. Only one project is confirmed, and the executive says the company’s growth depends on keeping imports near 10% of the market. That makes the duties a lever voters and governments will keep deciding on. Construction faces higher costs and high interest rates; carmakers face kit imports that use no Brazilian steel. Whoever wins Sunday inherits the question of how far public policy should go to shape private investment, and who bears the cost.