ArcelorMittal plans to invest more than R$10 billion, about US$1.9 billion, in Brazil in the coming years. The company’s local chief executive says those plans depend on how much steel enters the country. Jorge Oliveira, chief executive of ArcelorMittal Brasil, credited anti-dumping duties with helping. “You can't say the measures didn't help. They did,” he told Folha de S.Paulo on Oct. 1.
The Investment
About half the money is set aside for the Tubarão flat-steel plant in Serra, Espírito Santo. The project would add a cold-strip mill and a continuous coating line with capacity to make 560,000 tonnes a year. First announced in February 2025, the project is confirmed and valued at R$4 billion to R$5 billion, about US$770 million to US$960 million.
The second project is less certain. It would expand the Pecém plant, a port and industrial complex in Ceará in Brazil's northeast. Pecém now makes slabs, a semi-finished product. Expansion would turn those slabs into coils for Brazilian carmakers and builders. The company was completing a feasibility study. Brasil 247, citing Bloomberg Línea, put the cost at about R$5 billion, or US$960 million, with a decision due by the end of 2026.
Both projects follow R$25 billion, about US$4.8 billion, that the company has already invested in Brazil under a programme launched in 2022.
The Trade Measures
Brazil didn't ban Chinese steel. Instead, it imposed duties on specific products after investigations found sales below fair value, known as dumping, and harm to local producers. In February, Brazil imposed definitive anti-dumping duties, lasting up to five years, on cold-rolled flat steel from China. The country also applies a 25% tariff on steel imports above set quotas.
Imports have dropped. Steel imports fell 17.6% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to Instituto Aço Brasil. Folha, citing ministry data, reported that imports accounted for more than 25% of the market in January and about 16% in July and August. Company figures cited by Brasil 247 show rolled-steel imports rose 20.5% in 2025, reaching 5.7 million tonnes.
Oliveira still isn't satisfied. He said imports remained “far from a bearable level,” which he put at about 10% of the market, the historical average.
A Conditional Commitment
Brazil is ArcelorMittal's second-largest market after the United States. Brazilian revenue reached US$3.15 billion in the second quarter, up 12.2% from the first quarter. About 37% of its Brazilian business serves construction, which faces higher costs and high interest rates. Another 25% serves carmakers, who face competition from Chinese cars. Many arrive as kits of imported parts and use no Brazilian steel.
Oliveira tied the spending to the rules. “We are prepared to invest, as long as the import equation is right for our growth,” he said. “Our decision today is long-term and goes beyond governments,” he added. He took no side in the presidential election scheduled for Sunday.
Only Tubarão is confirmed. Pecém still depends on the study, demand and trade policy. Oliveira urged the next government to cut the “Custo Brasil,” described as the extra cost of doing business, and called for cheaper gas and power.
Brazil is the world's ninth-largest crude-steel producer, with 1.8% of global output. China produces 51.9%, according to Worldsteel figures cited by Folha. ArcelorMittal is one of the world's largest steelmakers and the Indian Mittal family controls it.
Why This Matters:
The announcement shows private capital responding to rules—and how conditional that response is. Tubarão is moving ahead, but Pecém, the larger bet on turning slabs into coils, hinges on a study, demand and trade policy, with a decision due by the end of 2026. The executive behind both projects hasn't asked only for protection. He's also asked the next government to lower the Custo Brasil and cut gas and power costs. From a market perspective, the lasting question is whether Brazil can make investment attractive through lower costs and predictable policy rather than trade barriers alone. Sunday's election will put that question to the next government. Construction firms and carmakers, which together account for 62% of ArcelorMittal's Brazilian business, will be watching the answer.