ArcelorMittal plans to invest more than R$10 billion, about US$1.9 billion, in Brazil. Anti-dumping duties that reduced steel imports helped drive the plan, said Jorge Oliveira, chief executive of ArcelorMittal Brasil. “You can’t say the measures didn’t help. They did,” he told Folha de S.Paulo on Oct. 1. The planned investment follows R$25 billion, about US$4.8 billion, invested under a company programme that began in 2022.
Duties and investment
About half of the new investment is planned for the Tubarão flat-steel plant in Serra, Espírito Santo. The project would add a cold-strip mill and a continuous coating line able to produce 560,000 tonnes a year. First announced in February 2025, the confirmed project is valued at R$4 billion to R$5 billion, about US$770 million to US$960 million.
The second proposed project would expand ArcelorMittal’s plant at Pecém, a port and industrial complex in Ceará in Brazil’s northeast. The plant currently makes slabs, a semi-finished product; expansion would convert them into coils for Brazilian carmakers and builders. The company was in the final stage of a feasibility study. Brasil 247, citing Bloomberg Línea, put the project at about R$5 billion, or US$960 million, with a decision due by the end of 2026.
Only Tubarão is confirmed. Pecém still depends on the study, demand and trade policy. Oliveira said the company’s investment decision was long-term and “goes beyond governments.” He took no side in the presidential election scheduled for Sunday.
Trade policy and market share
Brazil didn’t ban Chinese steel. Instead, it imposed duties on specific products after investigations found sales below fair value, known as dumping, and harm to local producers. In February, Brazil imposed definitive anti-dumping duties lasting up to five years on cold-rolled flat steel from China. The country also applies a 25% tariff on steel imports above set quotas.
Steel imports fell 17.6% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to Instituto Aço Brasil. Imports accounted for more than 25% of the market in January and about 16% in July and August, Folha reported, citing ministry data. In 2025, rolled-steel imports rose 20.5% to 5.7 million tonnes, according to company figures cited by Brasil 247. Oliveira said imports were still “far from a bearable level,” which he put at about 10% of the market, the historical average.
Business exposed to costs and competition
Brazil is ArcelorMittal’s second-largest market after the United States. The company’s Brazilian revenue reached US$3.15 billion in the second quarter, up 12.2% from the first quarter. About 37% of its Brazilian business serves construction, where higher costs and high interest rates weigh on activity; 25% serves carmakers.
Brazilian carmakers also face competition from Chinese cars, many of which arrive as kits of imported parts and use no Brazilian steel. Brazil ranks as the world’s ninth-largest crude-steel producer, accounting for 1.8% of global output, while China produces 51.9%, according to Worldsteel figures cited by Folha.
Oliveira urged the next government to reduce the “Custo Brasil,” described as the extra cost of doing business, and called for cheaper gas and power. “We are prepared to invest, as long as the import equation is right for our growth,” he said. ArcelorMittal is one of the world’s largest steelmakers and the Indian Mittal family controls it.