ArcelorMittal plans to invest more than R$10 billion, about US$1.9 billion, in Brazil, and its chief executive tied the plan to duties that have reduced steel imports. The measures didn’t ban Chinese steel: Brazil imposed duties on specific products after investigations found sales below fair value and harm to local producers. “You can’t say the measures didn’t help. They did,” Jorge Oliveira, chief executive of ArcelorMittal Brasil, told Folha de S.Paulo on Oct. 1.
The investment plan puts trade protection and domestic steel production at the center of the company’s expansion. About half of the planned spending would go to the Tubarão flat-steel plant in Serra, Espírito Santo. The project would add a cold-strip mill and a continuous coating line capable of producing 560,000 tonnes a year.
Trade measures and imports
Brazil imposed definitive anti-dumping duties in February on cold-rolled flat steel from China, with the measures lasting up to five years. The country also applies a 25% tariff on steel imports above set quotas. These are targeted trade restrictions, not a general ban on imports.
Steel imports fell 17.6% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to Instituto Aço Brasil. Imports made up more than 25% of the market in January and about 16% in July and August, Folha reported, citing ministry data. In 2025, rolled-steel imports rose 20.5% to 5.7 million tonnes, according to company figures cited by Brasil 247.
Oliveira said imports remained “far from a bearable level,” which he defined as about 10% of the market, the historical average. “We are prepared to invest, as long as the import equation is right for our growth,” he said. The company’s stated condition ties future investment to the trade environment, while Brazil’s duties and quota tariff shape the terms of competition with imported steel.
Two projects, different stages
ArcelorMittal first announced the Tubarão project in February 2025, and it is confirmed. The plan carries a value of R$4 billion to R$5 billion, or about US$770 million to US$960 million. The planned facilities would expand the plant’s production capacity in flat steel.
A second proposed investment would expand the company’s plant at Pecém, a port and industrial complex in Ceará in Brazil’s northeast. The plant currently makes slabs, a semi-finished product; an expansion would let it turn slabs into coils for Brazilian carmakers and builders. ArcelorMittal was in the final stage of a feasibility study. Brasil 247, citing Bloomberg Línea, put the project at about R$5 billion, or US$960 million, with a decision due by the end of 2026.
Only Tubarão is confirmed. The Pecém project still depends on the study, demand and trade policy. The proposed projects follow R$25 billion, about US$4.8 billion, invested in Brazil under a programme begun in 2022.
Markets and company conditions
Brazil is ArcelorMittal’s second-largest market after the United States. Its Brazilian revenue reached US$3.15 billion in the second quarter, up 12.2% from the first quarter. About 37% of its Brazilian business serves construction, which faces higher costs and high interest rates; 25% serves carmakers.
Brazilian carmakers also face competition from Chinese cars, many of which arrive as kits of imported parts and use no Brazilian steel. Brazil is the world’s ninth-largest crude-steel producer, accounting for 1.8% of global output, while China produces 51.9%, according to Worldsteel figures cited by Folha.
Oliveira said the investment decision was “long-term and goes beyond governments.” He took no side in the presidential election scheduled for Sunday. He urged the next government to reduce the “Custo Brasil,” described as the extra cost of doing business, and called for cheaper gas and power. ArcelorMittal is one of the world’s largest steelmakers and the Indian Mittal family controls it.