TV Globo cancelled its presidential debate on October 1 after last-minute rulings by TSE minister Estela Aranha and STF minister Gilmar Mendes changed the format. Three days before Brazil's first-round vote, voters lost the only stage where leading candidates were meant to face each other.
A Debate Undone by Last-Minute Rulings
The court orders were specific. They prohibited an empty podium for Lula, ordered Renan Santos’ inclusion, and barred directed questions. Lula had already withdrawn. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro then pulled out too, citing what he called censorship imposed on the event by the TSE, and urging voters to mobilise.
Globo didn’t hide its frustration. The broadcaster said judicial intervention created "legal uncertainty." The account of the episode noted that the 2018 and 2022 elections had left a legacy of suspicion about judicial power.
The economy offered a warning of its own that same day. Brazil's S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 from 46.3, its weakest reading since April 2023, more than three years ago. The Ibovespa still rose 0.46% in the last session, though a firmer U.S. dollar pressured the real.
Sovereignty Claim, Unproven Money
On Thursday, 1 October, the Office of the Attorney General of the Union (AGU), the government's legal arm, filed a criminal complaint with the Federal Police and the Prosecutor General's Office. It asks them to investigate a reported US$1 million U.S. grant for groups opposed to Brazil's Supreme Federal Court. Prosecutors may open an inquiry or shelve the complaint.
The AGU cited evidence that U.S. public funds may go to groups seeking "to delegitimise the Supreme Federal Court," allegedly "under the alleged pretext of fighting censorship and judicial abuses." It warned the case could expose "a structure of external interference." AGU head Jorge Messias called the report "an important alert for Brazilian sovereignty" in a post on X.
The facts behind the complaint are thinner than the rhetoric. The Guardian reported the grant, "Countering Lawfare and Censorship in Brazil," on Wednesday, 30 September. It accounted for one of 43 awards worth US$176.9 million, leaving the Brazil project well under 1% of the package. G1 said the report named no Brazilian beneficiary and didn’t confirm any money had been transferred. The State Department said the programmes remained in "active deliberation" and would undergo "a standard and rigorous vetting process." The complaint isn’t proof that money reached anyone in Brazil, and criticism of the Supreme Court is legal there. Messias also isn’t the prosecutor. Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet leads the independent service and decides on criminal inquiries.
Rhetoric and the Polls
Lula skipped Globo's final debate for the Flow Podcast, where, according to O Dia, the interview drew 1.6 million views. He called Flávio Bolsonaro a "vira-lata," or mongrel. "He has no past, no present, no future. He never worked in his life," Lula said, adding that his rival wasn’t qualified "to be even a building manager."
Across the border, Argentina's President Javier Milei told Le Point he hoped "my friend Flávio Bolsonaro" would win "to carry out the liberal clean-up the country needs." He again called Lula "a thief." The Supreme Court annulled Lula's corruption convictions in 2021 because the Curitiba trial court had no jurisdiction. On trade, Milei called it "a matter between private parties." Anyone may trade with Brazil, he said, but that "does not stop me from saying what I think about Lula." Brazil downgraded relations with Argentina in August after the July clash. Milei's endorsement carries no formal weight in the vote.
Datafolha's latest poll put Lula at 45% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40%. Neither clears the more-than-half threshold. A runoff is scheduled for 25 October. Some 82% of voters called their choice final, and 45% rejected each front-runner.
Why This Matters:
The cancelled debate shows what happens when courts change the rules of a campaign event hours before it airs. Broadcasters and candidates can’t plan around that kind of uncertainty. Voters get less information. Globo's own phrase, "legal uncertainty," describes the cost. Brazil's manufacturing PMI sits at its weakest since April 2023, and the next government will inherit that pressure whether the vote ends this Sunday or in a runoff. The sovereignty dispute adds friction with Washington on top of existing tariffs. The grant remains unconfirmed and under review, so the facts may not yet justify the heat. Still, the 45% who reject each front-runner will likely watch whether institutions look neutral. Gonet's decision on the complaint will be an early test of that.