TV Globo cancelled its presidential debate on October 1 after court rulings changed the format. Brazil’s manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8, its weakest reading since April 2023. The election is unfolding as factory activity weakens and a dispute grows over a reported U.S. grant to groups opposing Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court.
A debate reshaped by court orders
TSE minister Estela Aranha and STF minister Gilmar Mendes issued last-minute rulings that prohibited an empty podium for Lula, ordered Renan Santos’s inclusion and barred directed questions. Lula had already withdrawn. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro then pulled out, saying the TSE had imposed censorship on the event and urging voters to mobilise.
TV Globo said the judicial intervention created “legal uncertainty.” The cancellation came three days before the first round of the presidential election. The account also noted that the 2018 and 2022 elections left a legacy of suspicion about judicial power.
Brazil’s productive economy offered another measure of pressure. S&P Global’s PMI fell to 44.8 from 46.3. The market report said the Ibovespa rose 0.46% in the last session, while the real faced pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar. It gave no company earnings, wage figures or worker accounts alongside those measures.
Public funds and state institutions
On Thursday, 1 October, the Office of the Attorney General of the Union (AGU), the government’s legal arm, asked police and prosecutors to investigate a reported US$1 million U.S. grant for groups opposed to the Supreme Federal Court. The request went to the Federal Police and the Prosecutor General’s Office. Prosecutors may open an inquiry or shelve the complaint.
The AGU said evidence suggested U.S. public funds might go to groups seeking “to delegitimise the Supreme Federal Court,” allegedly “under the alleged pretext of fighting censorship and judicial abuses.” It called the matter “especially serious in view of the Brazilian electoral process under way” and cited external pressure on Brazilian institutions, including sanctions on national authorities.
Jorge Messias, head of the AGU, called the report “an important alert for Brazilian sovereignty.” “What cannot be tolerated is for foreign political interests to seek to interfere in the functioning of Brazilian institutions,” he wrote on X. The AGU said that, if investigators proved funding, they should identify those responsible and any Brazilian recipients to assess penalties. The complaint itself isn't proof that money reached anyone in Brazil.
The Guardian reported the grant on Wednesday, 30 September. The US$1 million award, “Countering Lawfare and Censorship in Brazil,” appeared among 43 Human Rights and Democracy Fund awards totaling US$176.9 million, making the Brazil project well under 1% of the package. The State Department said programmes remained in “active deliberation” and would undergo “a standard and rigorous vetting process.” G1 reported that the story named no Brazilian beneficiary and didn't confirm any transfer.
The AGU represents the government; it doesn't decide whether to pursue criminal inquiries. Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet leads the independent public prosecution service and makes that decision. Criticism of the Supreme Court is legal in Brazil, according to the report; the AGU’s concern was foreign funding of that campaign.
Campaign claims and the vote
President Lula told the Flow Podcast on Thursday that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro was a “vira-lata,” or mongrel. Lula said, “He has no past, no present, no future. He never worked in his life,” according to O Dia. The report said Lula chose the podcast over TV Globo’s final debate, and O Dia reported 1.6 million views on the show’s channel.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he was following Brazil’s election “very closely,” without naming a candidate or declaring support. Brazil’s intelligence agency, ABIN, had flagged a risk of U.S. influence or interference in the 2026 election. The vote was scheduled for Sunday, 4 October.
Datafolha’s latest poll put Lula at 45% of valid votes and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 40%. A candidate needs more than half of valid votes to win outright; a runoff was scheduled for 25 October if no candidate crossed that threshold. The poll found that 82% of voters called their choice final, while 45% rejected each front-runner.