Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 42% in Quaest’s latest runoff poll, released Monday, while Brazil’s most powerful court sits in the middle of the argument. The first-round general election is Sunday, 4 October. Datafolha’s last survey, on 24 September, put Lula at 47% and Flávio at 45%, within the margin of error.
The Race and the Referee
The Superior Electoral Court has already entered the campaign. On Wednesday, it began judging a case about false social-media posts claiming Flávio would strip Our Lady of Aparecida, Brazil’s patron saint, of her title. A majority formed to keep offline posts that directly connect Flávio or his family to the claim. Under the electoral code, voters can’t be arrested from Tuesday until 17:00 on 6 October, except when caught in the act.
Judges decide which posts remain online. The court convicted Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup and sentenced him to 27 years in prison, and now it faces fresh questions of its own.
Washington’s Grant and Brasília’s Objection
The U.S. State Department has earmarked US$1 million for a project called “Countering Lawfare and Censorship in Brazil.” The project would support Brazilian civil-society groups opposing what it calls judicial overreach and censorship by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The Guardian reported the allocation on Wednesday, 30 September, citing State Department documents and sources.
The sum is small: it’s one of 43 awards totaling US$176.9 million from the Human Rights and Democracy Fund. The U.S. Congress appropriates the fund for democracy and rights work abroad, so the Brazil project amounts to well under 1% of the package. No recipient groups have been named, and no payment is confirmed. Agência Brasil reported there was no information on whether officials had transferred the money or only committed it. The State Department told The Guardian the programmes were under “active deliberation” and would undergo vetting.
Jorge Messias, head of the Attorney General’s Office (AGU), called the report a warning for Brazilian sovereignty on 1 October. Foreign political interests, he said, must not interfere with Brazil’s institutions or voters’ choices. Friction between Washington and the court isn’t new. The U.S. sanctioned Justice Alexandre de Moraes in July 2025, lifted the sanctions in December 2025, and disputed STF rulings restricting American digital platforms, which the court says target online crime.
The Court Under Pressure at Home
Brazil’s own lawmakers have worked on the court far longer than Washington has. Members of Congress have filed at least 84 proposed constitutional amendments—64 in the Chamber and 20 in the Senate—according to a CNN Brasil survey. The oldest pending proposal dates to 2005. Senator Zequinha Marinho of the Podemos party filed the newest on 2 September 2026; it would bar former justices from elected office for five years. Other proposals would replace service until age 75 with fixed terms of eight or 15 years.
The most advanced proposal, PEC 8/2021, would stop individual justices from suspending laws or acts of the president and Congress. The Senate approved it 52 to 18 on 22 November 2023. The Chamber’s constitution and justice committee backed it 39 to 18 on 9 October 2024. It still needs a special committee and two floor votes. Passage requires 308 of 513 deputies and 49 of 81 senators, and the president has no veto.
Meanwhile, scrutiny of Moraes centers on Banco Master, which the Central Bank shut down in November 2025. Federal Police detained controlling shareholder Daniel Vorcaro in a fraud investigation. On 20 September, O Globo columnist Lauro Jardim published video showing Moraes and his wife leaving a business jet on 22 August 2025. Poder360 reported that a company in which a Vorcaro-linked fund held a stake owns the plane.
Moraes’s office called the insinuations “absolutely false,” saying he “never travelled on any Daniel Vorcaro plane, nor with him or Fabiano Zettel, whom he doesn’t even know.” No one has said Vorcaro or Zettel was aboard. Correio Braziliense reported that Vorcaro’s messages refer to a R$131 million (about US$25 million) contract with the wife’s firm. Moraes disputes the material’s authenticity and context, and his defence says police analysts didn’t find 47 of the 52 notes in WhatsApp chats. Neither he nor his wife has been charged, and no authority has found wrongdoing.
The full court met on 15 September to consider the police report. Justice Flávio Dino asked for more time. No decision followed. Justices have also discussed screening messages that mention court members, O Globo’s Bela Megale reported, though no decision has been reported.
Why This Matters: Brazil’s highest court is judging its own conduct as voters prepare to choose a president, raising a basic accountability question. Moraes has denied wrongdoing, and no one has charged him, so the facts remain unproven. Even so, pending amendments show lawmakers want limits on solo rulings and on how long justices serve. Any change would need broad congressional majorities, the constitutional route for checking judicial power. The U.S. grant is small and unconfirmed, yet it gives the government a sovereignty argument just before the vote. Investors and institutions watching Brasília want a court seen as bound by clear rules. Each unresolved dispute makes that harder to show.