Brazil recorded a trade surplus of US$7.74 billion in September, up 146.4% from a year earlier, the trade ministry said Tuesday. The headline figure looks strong. The detail is less even: some of Brazil’s largest export lines shrank as oil and mining surged.
Exports climbed 12.9% to US$34.42 billion, while imports slipped 2.4% to US$26.68 billion. Secex, the foreign trade secretariat within the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), supplied the figures.
Winners and Losers in the Export Mix
Extractive industries drove the gains. Exports from the sector jumped 39.8% to US$9.44 billion, as crude oil sales rose 77.3% and copper ore increased 74.2%. Agricultural exports posted a smaller gain, up 4.8% to US$7.00 billion, with soy rising 11.9% and unroasted coffee up 8.7%. Manufactured goods, the largest category, grew 5.3% to US$17.67 billion, led by soymeal, fuel oil and gold.
Other sectors lost ground. Iron ore fell 20.5%. Fresh or frozen beef dropped 30.6%, sugar 24.9% and corn 17.0%. Passenger cars, a manufactured product that supports factory employment, fell 34.3%. The ministry didn't explain what the declines mean for producers or workers in those industries.
The Tariff Standoff With Washington
Brazilian exports to the United States rose 31.9% to US$3.52 billion, despite a 25% U.S. tariff on most Brazilian goods that took effect in July. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) imposed the duty under Section 301, a U.S. law addressing unfair trade practices, effective Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 77 days before today. USTR exempted beef, orange juice, aircraft and parts, and energy products, among others.
The earlier tariff fight still matters. In September 2025, many Brazilian goods faced combined U.S. duties of up to 50%, imposed under emergency powers. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled those emergency tariffs unlawful in February 2026, eight months ago, g1 reported. Brazil is also contesting a separate 12.5% duty linked to forced-labour enforcement, according to g1.
The ministry didn't say how much of the U.S. export rebound reflected the lower tariff rate, oil prices or one-off shipments. Talks between Brasília and Washington remain unresolved. Brazil opened a process under its Reciprocity Law in August that could allow retaliation against U.S. goods, g1 reported, but officials haven't announced retaliatory measures.
Shifting Trading Partners
China remained Brazil's largest customer, though sales there fell 7.6% to US$7.89 billion in September. Sales to the European Union rose 60.1% to US$6.95 billion. Exports to Argentina fell 25.2% to US$1.36 billion. For the month, Brazil ran a US$0.83 billion surplus with China and a US$0.91 billion deficit with the United States.
Brazil exported US$284.65 billion from January through September, up 10.4%, and imported US$222.26 billion, up 5.0%. The nine-month surplus reached US$62.40 billion, 34.8% higher than a year earlier. Over that period, exports to the United States fell 6.5% to US$27.46 billion, and Brazil’s U.S. trade deficit reached US$4.33 billion.
MDIC still cut its 2026 trade-surplus forecast to US$84.4 billion from US$90.0 billion, compared with US$68.1 billion in 2025. It lowered projected exports to US$382.5 billion from US$394.4 billion. The ministry didn't explain the cut. The next trade release is due Tuesday, October 13.
Why This Matters:
A record-style surplus doesn't show the full picture. Oil and mining supplied much of September’s strength, while beef, sugar, corn and car exports fell. Those sectors employ large numbers of workers and rural producers. The ministry cut its full-year forecast without explanation, suggesting officials see risks ahead. The tariff dispute with Washington also remains unresolved, leaving exporters facing uncertainty.
Trade surpluses bring dollars into Brazil, supporting the real and the country’s ability to pay foreign debt. But they don't automatically reach farmers, factory workers and small producers, who absorb the shocks when tariffs and shifting demand hit their sectors. How Brasília and Washington settle the dispute—through negotiation or retaliation—will shape who bears the cost.