Brazil posted a trade surplus of US$7.74 billion in September 2026, up 146.4% from September 2025, the trade ministry said Tuesday, October 6. Exports rose 12.9% to US$34.42 billion. Imports fell 2.4% to US$26.68 billion.
One figure stands out: exports from Brazil to the United States climbed 31.9% to US$3.52 billion, despite a 25% U.S. tariff on most Brazilian goods that has applied since July. Secex, the foreign trade secretariat within the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), released the figures.
What Brazil Sold
Exports reached US$34.42 billion in September, up from US$30.49 billion a year earlier. Imports slipped from US$27.35 billion to US$26.68 billion. Combined trade, including exports and imports, rose 5.6% to US$61.10 billion.
Commodities drove much of the growth. Extractive-industry exports jumped 39.8% to US$9.44 billion, as crude oil sales rose 77.3% and copper ore climbed 74.2%. Agricultural exports gained 4.8% to US$7.00 billion, with soy up 11.9% and unroasted coffee 8.7%. Manufactured goods, the largest category, grew 5.3% to US$17.67 billion, led by soymeal, fuel oil and gold.
Some exports fell sharply. Iron ore dropped 20.5%. Fresh or frozen beef fell 30.6%, sugar 24.9%, corn 17.0% and passenger cars 34.3%.
Shifting Customers
China remained Brazil's largest customer, but Brazilian sales there fell 7.6% to US$7.89 billion in September. Brazil still recorded a US$0.83 billion surplus with Beijing. Sales to the European Union rose 60.1% to US$6.95 billion, while exports to neighboring Argentina declined 25.2% to US$1.36 billion.
Trade with the United States presented a mixed picture. Exports rose from US$2.67 billion to US$3.52 billion, but imports from the U.S. left Brazil with a US$0.91 billion deficit with that country for the month.
The Tariff Backdrop
In September 2025, many Brazilian goods faced combined U.S. duties of up to 50%, imposed in mid-2025 under emergency powers. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled those emergency tariffs unlawful in February 2026, eight months ago, g1 reported. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) then imposed a 25% tariff on most Brazilian goods under Section 301, a law addressing unfair trade practices. It took effect July 22, 2026, 77 days before Wednesday's date. USTR exempted beef, orange juice, aircraft and parts, and energy products, among others. Brazil is also contesting a separate 12.5% duty linked to forced-labour enforcement, g1 reported.
Nine-month totals offer a clearer measure of the tariff's bite. From January through September, Brazil exported US$284.65 billion, up 10.4%, and imported US$222.26 billion, up 5.0%. The surplus reached US$62.40 billion, 34.8% higher than a year earlier. Yet exports to the United States over that period fell 6.5% to US$27.46 billion, and Brazil's U.S. trade deficit hit US$4.33 billion. Exports to China, meanwhile, rose 12.0% to US$84.68 billion.
Forecast Cut, Talks Stalled
MDIC cut its 2026 trade-surplus forecast to US$84.4 billion from US$90.0 billion, compared with US$68.1 billion in 2025. It also lowered its export projection to US$382.5 billion from US$394.4 billion. The ministry didn't explain the reduction. Nor did it say how much of the U.S. export rebound came from the lower tariff rate, oil prices or one-off shipments.
Talks between Brasília and Washington over the tariff remain unresolved. Brazil began a process under its Reciprocity Law in August that could allow retaliation against U.S. goods, g1 reported, but it hasn't announced any retaliatory measures. The next trade release is due Tuesday, October 13.
The report describes Brazil as Latin America's largest economy and a major global supplier of soy, oil, iron ore, coffee and beef. Trade surpluses bring dollars into the country, supporting the real and Brazil's ability to pay foreign debt.
Why This Matters:
September's numbers show how trade can find a way around political barriers. Brazilian exporters kept selling to American buyers despite a 25% tariff, and expanded their reach into Europe. That adaptability is a market strength. But the picture isn't clean: nine-month sales to the U.S. are down 6.5%, the ministry cut its full-year forecast without explanation, and the U.S. rebound may owe as much to oil prices or one-off shipments as to underlying demand. The unresolved tariff dispute, the contested forced-labour duty and the open Reciprocity Law process all carry risk. If retaliation follows, businesses on both sides could face higher costs and more uncertainty. For a country that relies on commodity dollars to support its currency and service its foreign debt, predictable trade rules matter more than any single strong month.