Shipments of Brazilian coffee to the United States jumped 86.4% in September after Washington removed tariffs that had constrained trade for months, data released Friday shows. Yet the figures point to a troubling reality: American importers are buying more coffee, but Brazilian farmers and exporters are earning substantially less.
Brazil sent 625,192 bags of coffee to the U.S. in September, up from 335,339 bags a year earlier, according to Brazil's coffee exporters' council, Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil (Cecafé). Tariff removals began in November 2025 for most coffee and expanded in July 2026 to include soluble coffee, restoring normal trade flows after months of disruption. But they didn't bring prices back to normal. International coffee prices have collapsed. The average revenue per bag fell to roughly US$329 in September from about US$365 a year earlier. That 10% decline can't be offset by a surge in volume.
The Price Squeeze on Producers
Brazil's total coffee export revenue for September fell 7.1% to US$1.282 billion, even as the country shipped 3.1% more coffee overall. During the first nine months of 2026, exports totaled 29.095 million bags, essentially flat compared with 2025, while revenue crashed 8.6% to US$10.113 billion from US$11.065 billion. This squeeze hits workers and small farmers hardest. When commodity prices fall this sharply, pressure travels down global supply chains, landing on those with the least bargaining power.
Maximiliano Ferreira, president of Cecafé, cited several causes: lower international prices, rain damage that degraded early arabica harvests, and a shift toward cheaper canephora beans. Canephora exports surged 68.3% to 5.162 million bags, suggesting producers are adapting by growing and exporting lower-value coffee. That's a structural shift with real social consequences in Brazil's coffee regions, where rural communities depend on stable farm income.
Who Returns to the Table
The United States regained its place as Brazil's top customer for the first nine months of 2026, retaking ground it had lost to Germany during the tariff dispute. American buyers purchased 3.805 million bags from January through September, accounting for 13.1% of Brazil's exports. That's still 12.8% below the same period in 2025, so the U.S. market hasn't fully recovered despite the tariff removal. Germany ranked second with 3.307 million bags, down 11.4%. Italy, Belgium, and Japan completed the top five; Japan's purchases fell sharply by 23.3%.
The U.S. also led purchases of what Cecafé calls differentiated coffees: specialty, certified, and higher-quality lots that command premium prices. American buyers took 813,829 bags of these products, or 16.4% of that global segment. Small producers and cooperatives can capture more value from these coffees, but even here the price floor has weakened.
How Trade Politics Shaped the Market
Ferreira explicitly credited the tariff removals with stabilizing buyer confidence. "In November 2025, the US removed the tariff on most of the Brazilian product, but until July this year soluble coffee was still taxed," he said in Cecafé's official statement. The council worked with the U.S. National Coffee Association and the Brazilian government to secure exemptions and clarify that green coffee would remain untaxed in new American investigations.
Trade barriers, even temporary ones, send ripples through global supply chains. When tariff uncertainty clouds the market, buyers hold back. They defer purchases. Exporters keep inventory. Farmers delay planting decisions. Once clarity returns, volume bounces back, but prices don't necessarily follow. The U.S. tariffs were a blunt policy tool that disrupted commerce and potentially raised retail prices for American consumers.
Yet removing tariffs alone hasn't fixed the underlying problem: a global coffee market saturated with supply and depressed prices. Brazil's new 2026/27 crop year is already flowing into export channels. In its first three months, from July through September, exports reached 11.210 million bags, up 15.5% year over year. Revenue for that crop year rose just 0.8% to US$3.561 billion, a gain barely keeping pace with inflation.
The Weather Wildcard
Rain delayed harvests in July and reduced the quality of arabica lots, the higher-value variety that makes up 71.3% of Brazil's shipments. Arabica exports fell 10.7% to 20.739 million bags. Ferreira said the next harvest depends on weather during the flowering season, underscoring how climate volatility compounds the risks for producers who can't control prices or rainfall.
The port of Santos handled 70.7% of Brazil's coffee shipments from January through September, showing how infrastructure concentration leaves Brazilian exports vulnerable to port disruptions, labor actions, or logistics cost spikes. The Rio de Janeiro port complex handled 25.2%, while the remainder moved through other channels.
Why This Matters:
Tariff removal should theoretically help traders and consumers alike. Cheaper imported coffee can bring down retail prices and ease living costs for American households. But the data reveal a more complex reality: tariffs came off after they had already disrupted markets, and their removal hasn't restored the income Brazilian farmers and exporters need for sustainable livelihoods. Volume recovery masks a revenue collapse. Without attention to price stability measures—such as trade agreements that protect producer income, climate adaptation funding to protect harvests, or market interventions to prevent commodity dumping—tariff policy addresses only one layer of the problem. Trade liberalization risks benefiting downstream consumers while leaving upstream producers worse off, deepening inequality in global agriculture.