The United States and Iran are signaling they will hold a new round of ceasefire talks in Islamabad as a fragile two-week truce was due to expire, while Hamas disarmament remains a sticking point in talks over Gaza and broader regional diplomacy continues under pressure from the war. The machinery of state is already moving: Pakistani authorities have begun tightening security in the capital, and thousands of security personnel have been deployed across Islamabad, with patrols increased along routes leading to the airport.
Who Gets Policed
Two regional officials told The Associated Press that Pakistan-led mediators received confirmation that the top negotiators will arrive in Islamabad early Wednesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters. Security arrangements appear stricter than those put in place during the first round of talks held in the capital on April 11 and 12, following diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and regional countries, including China, to ease tensions in the region.
The AP said Pakistan is preparing for a new round of talks even after U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to throw cold water on hopes for reaching an agreement to end the war. Trump told Bloomberg News on Monday that he was "highly unlikely" to renew the ceasefire set to expire Wednesday. In a live telephone interview Tuesday on CNBC, Trump said, "Well, I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time," when asked if he would continue the ceasefire if there is progress in the next round of Iran talks. He said Iran "had a choice" and "they have to negotiate."
In another CNBC appearance Tuesday morning, Trump said, "Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with," adding, "But, you know, we’re ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go." Trump also said he is sending a U.S. delegation to Pakistan. The language is blunt enough: diplomacy backed by the threat of force, with the military waiting in the wings like a club on the table.
What the Powerful Call Negotiation
Iran’s chief negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, wrote in a post on X early Tuesday, "We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats," and said the Islamic Republic has been preparing "to reveal new cards on the battlefield." Iranian state television on Tuesday issued an on-screen alert saying that "no delegation from Iran has visited Islamabad ... so far" as speculation about possible talks with the United States grew. The alert said no official had acknowledged that a delegation would be heading to Islamabad, where officials have been on standby for days for the possible talks.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead an American team to the talks, while Iran has offered no word on who could lead its delegation. Last time, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf led the Iranian side. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Natalie Baker on Tuesday and urged that Washington and Iran extend the ceasefire and pursue diplomacy, the Foreign Ministry said. In a statement, it said Dar "underscored Pakistan’s consistent emphasis on dialogue and diplomacy as the only viable means to address challenges and achieve lasting regional peace and stability." Baker conveyed Washington’s appreciation for Pakistan’s constructive role in supporting regional peace and facilitating dialogue, the statement said.
Dar also spoke Tuesday with his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdelatty, to discuss the latest regional developments, and both leaders emphasized the importance of dialogue and engagement for peace and stability and agreed to remain in close contact. China said it hopes all parties can maintain the momentum for peace talks, as the two-week ceasefire in the Iran war is set to expire Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, "The current situation is at a critical stage of transition between war and peace. At such a moment, it is all the more necessary for all parties to show the utmost sincerity, remain committed to a political solution, maintain the momentum of the ceasefire and negotiations."
China’s Xi Jinping called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Monday. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said China has expressed support for Pakistan’s efforts to facilitate engagement between the United States and Iran for peace and stability in the region and beyond, after Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong conveyed the message during a meeting with Dar in Islamabad.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said, "we are now urgently calling on Iran to come to Islamabad and engage in constructive negotiations with the United States." He said U.S. Vice President JD Vance is ready to travel to Pakistan and that "Iran should now take this outstretched hand in the interest of its own people."
The Cost Below the Table
The conflict has also triggered what U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called "the most severe energy crisis in a generation," and U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said "Fossil fuel driven stagflation is now stalking economies, driving up prices, driving down growth, pushing budgets deeper into the quagmire of debt and stripping away governments’ policy options and autonomy." Guterres said fossil fuels are "not just wrecking our planet, they are holding economies hostage."
The AP said fighting since the war started has killed at least 3,375 people in Iran and more than 2,290 in Lebanon. It said 23 people have died in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, while 15 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and 13 U.S. service members throughout the region have been killed. Those numbers sit beneath the diplomatic choreography, the kind of body count that never appears in the polished language of “engagement” and “momentum.”
The Pentagon said Tuesday it wants to spend more than $30 billion to buy more critical munitions, including missile interceptors, whose stockpiles have become critically low during the Iran war. The supplies under the most strain are the Patriot air defense systems and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptors. The $30 billion budget item will also purchase long-range Precision Strike Missiles and Mid-Range Capability missile systems used by the U.S. Army.
The Pentagon’s $1.5 trillion budget proposal would also allocate nearly $54 billion for military drones and related technology, as well as $21 billion for weapons systems designed to take down enemy drones. Jules Hurst III, the acting undersecretary of defense, comptroller, said, "Drone warfare is rapidly reshaping the modern battlefield," and, "This budget is the largest investment in drone warfare and counter-drone technology in U.S. history." The Pentagon also said U.S. forces boarded an oil tanker previously sanctioned for smuggling Iranian crude oil in Asia, the M/T Tifani, "without incident" in a right-of-visit maritime interdiction. The statement said "international waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels."
Pakistan’s navy successfully conducted a live firing of the Taimoor air-launched missile, and Russia’s Transport Ministry said Rosaviatsia lifted recommendations for Russian airlines to temporarily halt sales of tickets to flights to and from the UAE and lifted restrictions on flights via Iranian airspace. The ministry said flights to Iranian airports and transit flights over the country will be carried out with recommendations from local aviation authorities taken into account. Restrictions on flights to the Middle East were introduced in February.
Iran said it hanged a man convicted over allegedly setting fire to a mosque in northern Tehran during nationwide protests in January. The judiciary’s Mizan news agency identified the man as Amir Ali Mir Jafari. The AP said Iran has already hanged people from the January protests, something that U.S. President Donald Trump had described as a red line before the recent war.
Gaza Under Managed Ruin
In Gaza, Israeli strikes killed at least five people early Tuesday, hospital authorities said. Four suspected militants were killed when a drone strike hit a security point just after midnight in the southern city of Khan Younis, the Nasser hospital said, and another man was wounded. In the northern town of Beit Lahiya, a 30-year-old woman was killed when the Israeli navy opened fire toward tents sheltering displaced people early Tuesday, the Shifa hospital said. The Israeli military said it wasn’t aware of attacks in Beit Lahiya. The deaths were the latest among Palestinians in Gaza since a fragile October ceasefire deal took hold to halt a more than two-year war between Israel and Hamas.
On the Gaza plan, the Board of Peace’s lead envoy for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, told Reuters that he was "fairly optimistic" a plan for disarmament of Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza can be agreed, but cautioned that it will still take time. "We’ve had some very serious discussions with Hamas over the last few weeks, they’re not easy," Mladenov said in an interview during a visit to Brussels. "I’m fairly optimistic that we will be able to come up with an arrangement that works for all sides and, most importantly, works for the people in Gaza," he said.
Mladenov said work was underway on an implementation plan that would include disarmament, new governance in Gaza and provisions for an Israeli withdrawal. He said, "It obviously will take time, but we’re trying to make sure that the arrangements for the implementation of the plan are agreed to as quickly as possible." Asked when an agreement could be reached, he said, "We have a matter of days, maximum a couple of weeks, that is my assessment, because otherwise we will lose the momentum of what we have, and then every decision will become even more difficult." He also said there was "a good way forward that is being discussed with both sides."
Mladenov said one issue under discussion was the "yellow line" demarcating the territory Israel has occupied since the October ceasefire, and said, "There’s a whole set of issues that need to be handled on the ground, including the yellow line," adding that matters such as access for aid and medicine are also under discussion with Israel. He said, "We’ve been able to, over the last few days, gradually and very carefully increase the number of people that are allowed to cross through the Rafah crossing. We’re looking at increasing the number of trucks of goods that are going into Gaza."
He said, "It’s a very complicated process," but one that is taking "a lot of small steps to get us ultimately to an agreement on the full implementation of the plan." Trump in February said U.S. allies had contributed over $7 billion to relief efforts in Gaza and the U.S. would contribute $10 billion to the Board of Peace. Mladenov said, "All the monies that were committed in Washington are there for the Board of Peace," and, "We don’t have any financial issues related to the work of the Board of Peace." He said member states can earn permanent membership of the board by paying $1 billion.
Trump proposed the Board of Peace in September to oversee his plan to end Israel’s war in Gaza, later saying it would tackle other conflicts. The UN Security Council has recognized the board, which is chaired by Trump, though many major powers have not joined. Trump’s Gaza plan, to which Israel and Hamas agreed in October, sees Israeli troops withdrawing from Gaza and reconstruction starting as Hamas lays down its weapons. Hamas disarmament is a central obstacle in talks to implement the plan and cement an October ceasefire that halted two years of full-blown war. Violence has continued in the Palestinian territory, much of which remains in ruins.
A Haaretz report said Trump is using threats to advance talks as a split emerges in Iranian leadership. It said the United States has once again dispatched a senior delegation to Pakistan for another round of negotiations with Iran on a permanent cease-fire in the Gulf war, with Vice President JD Vance heading the delegation. It said Iran sent conflicting messages on Monday about whether it would send a team to the talks in Islamabad, and that a power struggle appears to be underway in Tehran over whether to continue the talks. The report said if no breakthrough is reached, the cease-fire is expected to expire on Tuesday night, and that Trump has already warned of the consequences of renewed fighting.