A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is set to expire Wednesday, threatening to return thousands of civilians across the Middle East to the devastation of war that has already claimed more than 5,600 lives and triggered what U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called "the most severe energy crisis in a generation."
Two regional officials told The Associated Press that Pakistan-led mediators received confirmation that top negotiators will arrive in Islamabad early Wednesday for a new round of talks. Pakistani authorities have begun tightening security in the capital, deploying thousands of security personnel across Islamabad with increased patrols along routes leading to the airport. Security arrangements appear stricter than those put in place during the first round of talks held in the capital days earlier in the same month, following diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and regional countries, including China, to ease tensions in the region.
Threats Overshadow Diplomatic Progress
U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to throw cold water on hopes for reaching an agreement to end the war. Trump told Bloomberg News on Monday that he was "highly unlikely" to renew the ceasefire set to expire Wednesday. In a live telephone interview Tuesday on CNBC, Trump said, "Well, I don't want to do that. We don't have that much time," when asked if he would continue the ceasefire if there is progress in the next round of Iran talks. He said Iran "had a choice" and "they have to negotiate." In another CNBC appearance Tuesday morning, Trump said, "Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's a better attitude to go in with," adding, "But, you know, we're ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go."
Iran's chief negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, wrote in a post on X early Tuesday, "We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats," and said the Islamic Republic has been preparing "to reveal new cards on the battlefield." Iranian state television on Tuesday issued an on-screen alert saying that "no delegation from Iran has visited Islamabad ... so far" as speculation about possible talks with the United States grew. U.S. Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead an American team to the talks, while Iran has offered no word on who could lead its delegation.
Human Toll and Economic Devastation
Fighting since the war started has killed at least 3,375 people in Iran and more than 2,290 in Lebanon. Twenty-three people have died in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, while 15 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and 13 U.S. service members throughout the region have been killed. The conflict has also triggered what U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell called fossil fuel driven stagflation that is "now stalking economies, driving up prices, driving down growth, pushing budgets deeper into the quagmire of debt and stripping away governments' policy options and autonomy." Guterres said fossil fuels are "not just wrecking our planet, they are holding economies hostage."
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met U.S. Chargé d'Affaires Natalie Baker on Tuesday and urged that Washington and Iran extend the ceasefire and pursue diplomacy, the Foreign Ministry said. In a statement, it said Dar "underscored Pakistan's consistent emphasis on dialogue and diplomacy as the only viable means to address challenges and achieve lasting regional peace and stability." Baker conveyed Washington's appreciation for Pakistan's constructive role in supporting regional peace and facilitating dialogue, the statement said.
China said it hopes all parties can maintain the momentum for peace talks, as the two-week ceasefire in the Iran war is set to expire Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, "The current situation is at a critical stage of transition between war and peace. At such a moment, it is all the more necessary for all parties to show the utmost sincerity, remain committed to a political solution, maintain the momentum of the ceasefire and negotiations." German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said, "we are now urgently calling on Iran to come to Islamabad and engage in constructive negotiations with the United States." He said U.S. Vice President JD Vance is ready to travel to Pakistan and that "Iran should now take this outstretched hand in the interest of its own people."
Gaza Remains in Ruins as Disarmament Talks Stall
In Gaza, Israeli strikes killed at least five people early Tuesday, hospital authorities said. Four suspected militants were killed when a drone strike hit a security point just after midnight in the southern city of Khan Younis, the Nasser hospital said, and another man was wounded. In the northern town of Beit Lahiya, a 30-year-old woman was killed when the Israeli navy opened fire toward tents sheltering displaced people early Tuesday, the Shifa hospital said. The deaths were the latest among Palestinians in Gaza since a fragile October ceasefire deal about 6 months ago took hold to halt a more than two-year war between Israel and Hamas.
The Board of Peace's lead envoy for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, told Reuters that he was "fairly optimistic" a plan for disarmament of Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza can be agreed, but cautioned that it will still take time. "We've had some very serious discussions with Hamas over the last few weeks, they're not easy," Mladenov said in an interview during a visit to Brussels. "I'm fairly optimistic that we will be able to come up with an arrangement that works for all sides and, most importantly, works for the people in Gaza," he said. Mladenov said work was underway on an implementation plan that would include disarmament, new governance in Gaza and provisions for an Israeli withdrawal.
He said, "It obviously will take time, but we're trying to make sure that the arrangements for the implementation of the plan are agreed to as quickly as possible." Asked when an agreement could be reached, he said, "We have a matter of days, maximum a couple of weeks, that is my assessment, because otherwise we will lose the momentum of what we have, and then every decision will become even more difficult." Mladenov said one issue under discussion was the "yellow line" demarcating the territory Israel has occupied since the October ceasefire, and said, "There's a whole set of issues that need to be handled on the ground, including the yellow line," adding that matters such as access for aid and medicine are also under discussion with Israel.
He said, "We've been able to, over the last few days, gradually and very carefully increase the number of people that are allowed to cross through the Rafah crossing. We're looking at increasing the number of trucks of goods that are going into Gaza." Trump proposed the Board of Peace about 7 months ago to oversee his plan to end Israel's war in Gaza, later saying it would tackle other conflicts. The UN Security Council has recognized the board, which is chaired by Trump, though many major powers have not joined. Trump's Gaza plan, to which Israel and Hamas agreed about 6 months ago, sees Israeli troops withdrawing from Gaza and reconstruction starting as Hamas lays down its weapons. Hamas disarmament is a central obstacle in talks to implement the plan and cement an October ceasefire that halted two years of full-blown war. Violence has continued in the Palestinian territory, much of which remains in ruins.
Military Buildup Continues
The Pentagon said Tuesday it wants to spend more than $30 billion to buy more critical munitions, including missile interceptors, whose stockpiles have become critically low during the Iran war. The supplies under the most strain are the Patriot air defense systems and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptors. The $30 billion budget item will also purchase long-range Precision Strike Missiles and Mid-Range Capability missile systems used by the U.S. Army. The Pentagon's $1.5 trillion budget proposal would also allocate nearly $54 billion for military drones and related technology, as well as $21 billion for weapons systems designed to take down enemy drones. Jules Hurst III, the acting undersecretary of defense, comptroller, said, "Drone warfare is rapidly reshaping the modern battlefield," and, "This budget is the largest investment in drone warfare and counter-drone technology in U.S. history."
Why This Matters:
The expiration of the ceasefire threatens to plunge the Middle East back into full-scale war, with devastating consequences for civilian populations already bearing the brunt of conflict. More than 5,600 people have died, and millions face economic hardship as the energy crisis drives up prices and strips governments of policy options to protect vulnerable communities. The international community's ability to facilitate dialogue and prevent further loss of life depends on maintaining diplomatic momentum, yet military threats and escalatory rhetoric undermine the prospects for peace. In Gaza, where much of the territory remains in ruins after two years of war, displaced families in tent shelters remain vulnerable to violence while humanitarian access remains severely restricted. The slow progress on disarmament talks and the continued Israeli military presence highlight the gap between ceasefire agreements and the lived reality of Palestinians seeking safety, reconstruction, and a path to self-governance. Without sustained international pressure for diplomacy over military action, the region faces the prospect of renewed devastation that will disproportionately harm civilians with the least power to protect themselves.