Mental health experts expect the 2026 census to reveal a troubling rise in the number of Australians reporting mental health conditions, with financial pressures and lingering pandemic effects driving increased distress across the population. The census, taken on Tuesday, represents only the second time Australians have been asked to report long-term health issues, providing researchers with critical comparative data to track changes since 2021.
Mental health conditions were already the most reported long-term health diagnosis in the 2021 census, when about one in 11 Australians said they had a long-term mental health condition. At that time, mental health conditions were highest in the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia, where about one in 10 people lived with such conditions. The conditions can include depression and anxiety.
Rising Demand Signals Growing Crisis
Biostatistician Tim Slade, from the University of Sydney's Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, said the data provided "really important information at an Australian population level for the prevalence of these conditions, and obviously tracking whether things have changed over time." He said he expected the latest census to reflect a rise in mental health reports. "We have seen an increase in the general population, the whole adult population, in mental health problems," Slade said. "I'm very interested in seeing these results."
The trend isn't new. Slade said mental health challenges were rising long before the COVID pandemic. "In terms of mental health challenges … we were seeing a rise in mental health problems long before the COVID pandemic," he said. "COVID has had an impact on the mental health of the population and particularly among some subgroups of the population."
Beyond Blue chief executive Georgie Harman said there had been a rise in demand for services across Australia. "We know from our own data that psychological distress relating to financial pressure has been increasing over the past four years, which is an important signal given that money worries and mental health conditions can influence each other," Harman said. "We're also seeing increased demand for immediate support through our services, and indications that anxiety and depression symptoms may be getting more severe."
Service Gaps in Rural Communities
Steph Schmidt, a psychologist and farmer who lives in South Australia's Mid North, said, "From what I've seen on the ground, I wouldn't necessarily think that [the prevalence of mental health conditions] is going to have gone down a whole lot in the last couple of years." She said, "It's an ongoing issue, whether you are rural, whether you are urban."
Schmidt noted the census captures only diagnosed cases. "It's only capturing those that are diagnosed as well, so it is tricky," she said. "On the other hand, it's also helpful to, I guess, discriminate almost between getting the diagnosis and self-diagnosis."
Data to Guide Resource Allocation
Harman emphasized the potential for early intervention. "The good news is that we can get onto these issues as soon as they start to emerge and take actions that prevent them from snowballing," she said. "The census data is another useful source of information that helps many organisations make sense of what's happening and plan for the future so that the whole community benefits."
Schmidt stressed the importance of accurate reporting for directing resources. "Things like the census and the responses that come through I hope do help inform where some of that money goes and the services that are supported," she said. "I think that's where it is really important to answer honestly with where your experience has been so that it can help government, or also even charities and non-government organisations to direct where supports are put." Support organisations hope the results will provide new insights into how mental health services should be distributed.
Why This Matters:
The expected rise in reported mental health conditions reflects a growing public health crisis that demands comprehensive policy responses and adequate funding for mental health services. The connection between financial pressure and psychological distress, particularly over the past four years, underscores how economic inequality directly impacts mental wellbeing. Accurate census data is essential for ensuring government resources and support services reach the communities that need them most, whether urban or rural. The rising severity of anxiety and depression symptoms signals an urgent need for accessible, well-funded mental health care as a fundamental component of Australia's social safety net. Without proper investment in prevention and early intervention, the crisis will continue to deepen, affecting productivity, family stability, and overall quality of life across the nation.