Chinese construction crews are grading land for a runway on Antelope Reef, a move that could strengthen Beijing’s military control over the disputed South China Sea. Satellite images reviewed by Reuters show gravel piles, concrete and compaction cranes at the site. The machinery is preparing the ground for a military foothold that could extend the reach of Chinese ships and aircraft.
Images taken on September 25 by commercial satellite imagery provider Vantor also show a fully loaded gravel barge heading to a newly built wharf. The work is well underway. Analysts estimate the runway could be finished by mid-2027.
Building the apparatus
Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker, said the pace of construction points toward a runway and landing in 2027. “If Fiery Cross is the guide, I’d expect the runway paved in the first half of 2027 and a first landing by mid-2027, possibly earlier,” he said. Lewis was referring to a 3-km (3,280-yard) runway built on a reef in the disputed Spratly Islands further south in 2015. “They’ve had 10 years to get faster at this,” he said.
Vantor imagery analysts and open-source intelligence tracker Damien Symon, who first highlighted dredging at the reef in early January, described the cranes as equipment used to compact reclaimed or loose earth into foundations before paving. The construction is more than a visible marker on the water: a completed base would mark China’s most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade.
A future base in the northern South China Sea would extend deployments of a wide range of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft. It would also help protect the approaches to Hainan Island, where China keeps its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. Turning a disputed reef into infrastructure would extend the state’s military reach.
Lewis said he had yet to note signs of excavation for possible ammunition and fuel storage, which a base of this scale would need. The imagery clearly shows the runway’s construction; Lewis hasn’t identified those potential facilities.
Disputed claims, expanding control
Vietnam and Taiwan also claim the entire Paracel Islands. China drove out the forces of then-South Vietnam from bases in the Paracels in a brief battle in 1974 and has occupied them ever since over Hanoi’s objections. The new construction is unfolding on territory claimed by others, and physical infrastructure can deepen the reach of the power holding it.
Reuters reported in late August that new installations had been sighted on a smaller islet near Antelope. Analysts haven’t definitively gauged the likely function of the three-pronged construction on Yagong Island. The separate work adds another unanswered question in a region where military competition already centers on Beijing, the United States and its allies over Taiwan.
China hasn’t acknowledged construction of a new military base. State media have said Antelope will serve civilian needs such as weather forecasting and maritime and scientific research. China’s defence ministry didn’t immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The Vietnamese foreign ministry and Taiwan’s defence and foreign ministries also didn’t immediately respond to Reuters’ questions.
The work at Antelope comes as China this week confirmed the creation of a new joint military support facility in neighbouring Laos, an expansion that could deepen Beijing’s presence in Southeast Asia. The cranes and gravel at Antelope are concrete evidence. The competing claims and official silence leave the people watching this militarized waterway with little say over what gets built.