China’s runway construction on Antelope Reef is well underway. Analysts estimate completion by mid-2027, a development that could extend Beijing’s military reach in the disputed South China Sea, where Vietnam and Taiwan also claim the Paracel Islands.
Satellite images reviewed by Reuters show grading work, gravel piles, concrete and cranes compacting the ground. Images taken on September 25 by commercial satellite provider Vantor also show a fully loaded gravel barge heading toward a newly built wharf. Military attaches and security analysts say the construction could become one of China’s most important offshore bases in the region.
A potential shift in military reach
A completed base would mark China’s most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade, Reuters reported. It would extend the range of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft in a waterway that has become an increasingly militarized arena of competition between Beijing and the United States and its allies over Taiwan.
Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker, said the construction could move at a pace similar to the runway built on a reef in the disputed Spratly Islands. “If Fiery Cross is the guide, I’d expect the runway paved in the first half of 2027 and a first landing by mid-2027, possibly earlier,” Lewis said. The Fiery Cross runway measures 3 km (3,280 yards) and China built it in 2015. “They’ve had 10 years to get faster at this,” he said.
A future base in the northern South China Sea would extend deployments of a wide range of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft and help protect the approaches to Hainan Island, where China keeps its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. That could strengthen China’s military control in the disputed waterway. The article says the other claims to the Paracels remain unresolved.
Construction and competing claims
Vantor imagery analysts and open-source intelligence tracker Damien Symon described the cranes as equipment used to compact reclaimed or loose earth into foundations before paving. Symon first highlighted dredging at the reef in early January.
Lewis said he hadn’t noted signs of excavation for possible ammunition and fuel storage, which a base of this scale would need. China hasn’t acknowledged construction of a new military base. State media have said Antelope will serve civilian needs, including weather forecasting and maritime and scientific research. China’s defence ministry didn’t immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Vietnam and Taiwan also claim the entire Paracel Islands. China drove out the forces of then-South Vietnam from bases in the Paracels in a brief battle in 1974 and has occupied them ever since over Hanoi’s objections. The Vietnamese foreign ministry and Taiwan’s defence and foreign ministries didn’t immediately respond to Reuters’ questions.
Related construction and regional presence
Reuters reported in late August that new installations had been sighted on a smaller islet near Antelope. Analysts have yet to gauge definitively the likely function of the three-pronged construction on Yagong Island.
This week, China confirmed the creation of a new joint military support facility in neighbouring Laos, a move that could deepen Beijing’s presence in Southeast Asia. The Reuters report describes the facility alongside the reef construction, but doesn’t specify its functions or the terms under which it was created.