China’s exports grew 2.5% in March from a year ago, a sharp slowdown that exposes how quickly the machinery of global trade can be shaken by war, energy shocks, and the decisions of powerful states far above ordinary people. The March export data, released by China’s customs agency Tuesday, missed analysts’ estimates and fell hard from the 21.8% export growth recorded for January and February.
Who Pays for the Shock
The slowdown came as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand. That is the bill being passed down the chain: conflict, price spikes, and supply disruptions at the top, then weaker demand and instability for workers and communities at the bottom. Imports last month surged 27.8%, up from the 19.8% year-on-year increase in the first two months of this year, showing how volatile the trade picture has become.
Technology-related exports, including a jump in shipments of semiconductors from China on the global artificial intelligence boom, powered robust exports in early 2026. But economists said the prolonged Iran war could affect overall global demand for Chinese exports this year. Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at French bank Natixis, said, “China’s exports have decelerated as the Iran war starts to affect global demand and supply chains.”
The Bosses Call It Growth
Bank of America economists led by Helen Qiao wrote in a recent research note that demand is likely to weaken due to the war’s energy shock. They said the risks will “arise from a persistent global slowdown in overall demand if the conflict lasts longer than currently expected.” That is the language of institutions tracking damage after the fact while the people who live with the consequences get no say in the systems that create them.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s elevated tariffs on Chinese exports and tensions between Washington and Beijing have also been straining China’s shipments to the U.S. over the past months. China has responded by stepping up exports to other regions including Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America. The trade routes shift, the pressure stays.
Targets, Slumps, and the Limits of the System
Analysts are also closely watching Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in May to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping following a delay due to the Iran war. The meeting is another reminder that the fate of trade and livelihoods is being negotiated by state leaders, not by the people whose labor keeps the system running.
Chinese leaders have set an annual economic growth target for 2026 of 4.5% to 5%, the lowest since 1991. That target sits beside the reality that China met its “around 5%” economic growth target for 2025 on strong exports, with a record high $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Analysts say exports likely will continue to be a key driver for maintaining economic expansion this year as a prolonged property sector slump in China weighed on domestic demand and investments.
That is the hierarchy in plain view: export performance is treated as the lifeline, while domestic demand and investments are dragged down by a prolonged property sector slump. The system keeps leaning on external trade to keep itself upright, even as war, tariffs, and market shocks keep squeezing the people underneath it.