China’s customs agency said Wednesday that exports surged 36.3% in September from a year earlier, a jump landing squarely on the desks of European policymakers already wrestling with a trade gap Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called “unsustainable.”
The figure beat economists’ expectations. It also accelerated from 25% growth in August. Imports rose 31% over the same period, up from 28.2% the month before. Even so, the gap kept widening: China’s trade surplus reached $133.5 billion in September, compared with $119.1 billion in August. High-tech goods, including semiconductors and autos, helped fuel the climb in overseas shipments.
The Scale of the Imbalance
The numbers on the European side are stark. The EU’s goods deficit with China reached €360 billion ($402 billion) last year. In the first six months of 2026, it had already reached €200 billion. This isn’t confined to one corner of the economy. Deficits span machinery, textiles, basic metals, chemicals and cars—the sectors where European industrial jobs and regional economies are concentrated.
Von der Leyen has promised that the EU will use every possible means to bring the deficit down. Brussels has changed its priorities. The Commission has shifted away from seeking better access for European companies in Chinese markets and toward allowing China to sell less into the bloc.
Diplomacy Under Pressure
Last week brought a modest result. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic called the EU-China deal on hybrid car imports, reached about a week ago, a “very good result.” He stressed, though, that it was only a first step in the wider process of rebalancing.
Sefcovic met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing on Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. On Monday, a senior Commission official said dialogue alone was unlikely to complete the job. The Commission is likely to propose its first further measure in December.
What Comes Next
That timetable leaves a gap. Beijing’s export machine is accelerating month on month as Brussels prepares its next move. The September data gives no sign that pressure from trading partners, including the EU, is slowing Chinese shipments. For now, the hybrid car agreement remains the only concrete outcome of the rebalancing push. The Commission itself calls it a beginning, not a solution.
The EU is acting as a bloc here, and that matters. No single member state could negotiate with Beijing from a position of comparable weight. The test is whether a collective response can arrive fast enough to matter for factories and workers exposed to the surge.
Why This Matters:
A €360 billion annual deficit isn’t an abstraction. It reflects pressure on European manufacturing across machinery, textiles, metals, chemicals and autos—sectors that employ workers in towns and regions far from Brussels. From a social democratic perspective, the question is whether trade defence will come with investment in affected communities, so that any adjustment doesn’t fall on those least able to absorb it. The Commission’s admission that dialogue won’t be enough, paired with a December timeline for the next proposal, shows how wide the gap remains between the EU’s stated ambition and its delivered results. A united European response is the only credible tool available. It has to move at the speed the data demands.