Pacific countries spend up to 13 per cent of their GDP on imported fuels. That’s the backdrop as Australia prepares to lead negotiations at the COP31 climate conference, which Türkiye will host in Antalya in November. Governments face pressure to mobilize climate finance and advance a phase-out of fossil fuels.
The stakes are rising fast. The world is nearing the 1.5°C warming threshold set in the Paris Agreement. In an October 5, 2026 article, Trang Nguyen of The Diplomat described intensifying climate impacts across the Asia-Pacific, from Bangkok and towns in China and Nepal to the Pacific Ocean itself.
Island Voices Move to the Front
Up to 3,000 participants are expected in Fiji in the coming days for a Pre-COP31 preparatory meeting, backed by Australia and Pacific partners. A leaders’ summit is also planned in Tuvalu. Organizers aim to amplify small island states, which face growing exposure to climate impacts despite contributing relatively little to global emissions.
Australia says it wants the best possible outcomes for the Pacific, including climate finance through initiatives such as the Pacific Resilience Facility. Earlier this year, Australia and Fiji signed the Vuvale Union Treaty, recognizing links among climate, people, prosperity and peace across the Pacific. Nguyen wrote that its message is clear: rising sea levels threaten Pacific nations’ existence and affect Oceania’s security and future prosperity.
Nguyen argued that people shouldn’t cast Pacific countries only as vulnerable nations in need of help. Their economies, food systems, cultures and identities depend on natural capital. Fisheries, tourism and coastal protection could support future development, provided countries protect oceans, forests, coral reefs, mangroves and freshwater.
A Hard Road on Fossil Fuels
Australia and Türkiye are expected to tackle outstanding items, including climate finance set out in the COP29 New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance and language for a fossil-fuel phase-out in negotiation texts. That won’t be easy. The New Delhi Declaration, endorsed at a BRICS leaders’ meeting last month, mentioned climate 34 times. Yet it also said, “fossil fuels will still play an important role in the world’s energy mix, particularly for emerging markets and developing economies.”
BRICS now includes 11 countries and accounts for 50 percent of the global population. Reaching absolute consensus among 198 countries is difficult, especially with the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
Nguyen identified practical openings. Across the Pacific, replacing diesel generation with solar, batteries and other renewable systems could strengthen energy security, though the transition requires upfront investment. In archipelagic countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia, solar-powered cold storage could reduce post-harvest losses and electricity costs for farmers and fishermen. The article said concessional finance and development assistance could help communities replace aging, expensive equipment and build long-term resilience.
Heat, Warming Seas and a Philanthropic Lifeline
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the region had its second-warmest year on record in 2025, while marine heatwaves disrupted ecosystems and fisheries. A July WMO report said ocean warming and acidification are affecting marine ecosystems and local economies in the South-West Pacific. Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, executive secretary of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, said: “Across Asia and the Pacific, heat is intensifying multi-hazard risks, intersecting with food systems, public health, infrastructure and oceans, and placing new pressures on health and livelihoods. Early warning and early action save lives when alerts are timely, messages are trusted and last-mile delivery reaches the vulnerable.”
Private money is arriving, too. The Bezos Earth Fund announced more than $25 million in new ocean-conservation grants across the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Vanuatu, covering more than 625,000 square miles of ocean. It’s the second round of the fund’s $100 million Unlocking Blue Pacific Prosperity pledge, bringing awards under that commitment to $63.3 million. The first round, worth $37.5 million, came in 2025. The goal is to protect at least 30% of the region’s waters by 2030.
Papua New Guinea expects to establish its first large offshore marine protected area, while Tonga is expanding its protected areas. A grant to the conservation group Rare should help governments prepare some of the first proposals to protect biodiversity in international waters under the UN High Seas Treaty, which took effect in January. The fund says 17 of the Pacific’s 22 countries now work to protect or sustainably manage their waters.
The sums need context. Bezos pledged $10 billion through the fund in 2020, to be distributed by the end of 2030. The fund has distributed about $2.4 billion, leaving roughly $7.6 billion. Bloomberg reported grantmaking fell to $183 million in 2025 before reaching at least $400 million in 2026. Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index valued Bezos at about $273 billion as of October 1, 2026. Kelly Levin, the fund’s chief of science, data and systems change, said the organization takes time to understand an area before directing its money.
Why This Matters: Pacific nations face an existential squeeze. They’re paying heavily for imported fuel, absorbing the worst of warming seas and contributing little to the emissions causing it. Philanthropic grants can protect ocean territory, but they depend on one donor’s decisions. They’re also small beside a $273 billion fortune and a $7.6 billion undistributed pledge still awaiting a 2030 deadline. Public commitments are different. Governments can be held to the COP29 finance goal, the Pacific Resilience Facility and a fossil-fuel phase-out. If COP31 fails to reach consensus among 198 countries, communities with the least cushion will pay first through lost fisheries, damaged infrastructure and rising fuel bills. Private generosity can’t replace accountable, multilateral action.