The U.S. conducted several rounds of strikes on Iran yesterday, and Wall Street still climbed on Big Tech strength and signs of easing inflation. That’s the setup CNBC’s Daily Open handed readers: war in one frame, market cheer in the next, with benchmark indexes rising while analysts warned of a possible “forever war.”
Who Pays While Markets Cheer
Oil was trading higher during Asia hours, but the major averages closed higher anyway. The newsletter said benchmark indexes rose on Big Tech strength and encouraging inflation data, as if the machinery of finance could shrug off fresh strikes and a naval blockade with a few upbeat numbers. The report also noted that the U.S. launched fresh strikes and reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, while analysts warned of “forever war” risk. Ordinary people get the costs. The market gets the applause.
Gas prices were already pressing upward. Kalshi traders saw gas prices crossing $4 by the end of July, with odds jumping to 90% from 56% in the last two days. The contract now showed a 93% chance that gas prices would go above $4 per gallon and a 63% chance they would go over $4.10. Wednesday’s national gas price was $3.89, about 3 cents higher than Tuesday’s, according to AAA. The contract will be verified by AAA. That’s the kind of “forecast” working people actually feel at the pump.
The Speculators Get Their Say
The newsletter said a $53 billion takeover bid for PayPal sent its stock soaring, while SpaceX stock fell below its IPO price. It also said Stripe and Advent made a $53 billion takeover offer for PayPal, a $60.50 per share cash offer, and that PayPal had not responded. The same report said Anthropic was moving closer to a mega-IPO, with bankers lining up investor meetings for the AI company, and that the AI lab was last valued at $965 billion. Capital keeps rearranging itself at the top, with bankers, bidders, and valuations doing the talking.
SpaceX stock sank below its $135 IPO price for the first time about a month after its blockbuster debut, and the company was set to launch its 13th Starship test flight on Thursday. The newsletter placed that alongside the PayPal bid and the Anthropic IPO push, a neat little tour through the world where giant sums move around while everyone else is told to watch the ticker.
Power Talks About Itself
Warren Buffett cautioned that values are scarce “when everybody is preferring gambling.” He told CNBC that he was the one who initiated Berkshire Hathaway’s recent big investment in Alphabet, not Berkshire Hathaway’s new CEO, Greg Abel. Buffett was also critical of a stock market increasingly driven by speculative trading rather than long-term investing. Even the old guard of capital sounds uneasy when the casino starts eating its own rules.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spent his Senate testimony walking a tightrope, talking up the economy and interest rates while fielding questions about how often he talks to the Trump administration. Warsh said he meets “often” with the Trump administration while insisting the central bank’s decisions remain independent. He told senators he meets “often” with the Trump administration while defending the central bank’s independence. The ritual is familiar: elected power, unelected power, and the same closed circle pretending distance while admitting contact.
The newsletter was written by Anniek Bao from Singapore and published Wed, Jul 15 2026 9:06 PM EDT. Its final note on gas prices, war, and market gains tied the whole thing together without meaning to. The people at the bottom get the blockade, the price hikes, and the bill. The people at the top get the meetings, the bids, and the soothing language of “independence.”