The Iran war has cost American taxpayers $45 billion as of mid-September, while the president’s promise of a quick victory enters its eighth month of testing. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the United States wouldn’t attack Iran again before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. CNN described the statement as an implicit admission that the conflict is hurting Republican prospects.
The politics are plain enough. Opposition to the war, combined with anger over high gasoline and diesel prices, is a prime reason the GOP faces uphill or tight races in Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. Trump won all three states easily two years ago.
The Pocketbook Problem
Numbers tell the story better than rhetoric. Gasoline averages $4.36 a gallon nationally. Diesel remains expensive, though it has fallen from record highs set last month. A Pew Research Center report released Thursday found that 74% of Americans are concerned about gas and energy prices, up from 43% before the war. A CNN/SSRS poll released the same day showed more than 7 in 10 voters in Iowa and Ohio, where critical Senate contests are underway, saying Trump’s policies have raised the cost of living.
Even if prices fall before Election Day, Americans won’t recover the extra money they’ve already spent at the pump.
Impatience is growing in the president’s own party. Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers said in a social media video late last month, “The war in Iran needs to end, and end quickly.”
The Blockade Strategy
Trump wrote on Truth Social that his blockade of Iran’s oil exports and ships had reduced the country to a “very bad condition.” He added, “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.” He made the announcement after the Atlantic and Axios reported he was weighing a resumption of major combat operations before the vote to show resolve.
The economic pressure is real. Iran faces soaring inflation and a tumbling rial. Iran’s national security adviser Mohsen Rezaei, citing the official IRNA news agency, said Saturday the country faces one of its most difficult periods. Yet on Tuesday, he struck a defiant note. “Bessent’s delusional forecasts never had any credibility in the first place,” he wrote on X. “You lost the military war. You will fail in the economic war, too.”
At G20 talks on August 31, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “I think it could be within weeks or months — and the (Iranian) economy doesn’t have to collapse, we just have to have the regime come to their senses.” At the end of September, Trump rejected Iran’s offer to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks in exchange for easing the blockade.
Hormuz Remains Fragile
Signs that Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz has weakened support the administration’s claim that it’s winning. Oil flows from Gulf states other than Iran have returned almost to normal in an operation the U.S. military coordinated. But the improvement is fragile. Reuters reported seven crossings of the strait on Tuesday, the lowest number in more than two months, and 10 on Wednesday, after attacks and harassment of tankers increased. Fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia pushed Brent crude up 4% on Thursday.
Officials say the blockade is working. It hasn’t delivered political gains for Republican candidates.
After the Election
Trump didn’t rule out new attacks once ballots are cast. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the administration is sending another aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. The paper also reported that Trump recently told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterms.
The president has often reversed his statements on Iran, at times apparently to confuse Tehran, so it’s unclear whether his latest position will hold. In May, he told a Cabinet meeting, “I don’t care about the midterms.” Late that previous month, he predicted, “I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn’t make sense for them not to.”
A Democratic win in the House or Senate could narrow the president’s window. Fights over war powers and financing are expected next year.
Why This Matters:
The war’s price tag, $45 billion by mid-September, falls on taxpayers already squeezed by $4.36 gasoline. That raises a basic question of fiscal accountability: what are Americans buying, and for how long? A fragile Strait of Hormuz leaves energy markets exposed to every tanker attack and every flare-up between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Another round of strikes after the election would force a hard look at why a new attack would succeed where earlier aerial attacks failed to change Iran’s position. If Congress changes hands, the constitutional balance over war powers and war financing will face a test. Markets, households and lawmakers need a clearer path to an end state than the administration has yet offered.