U.S. military operations against Iran had cost $45 billion by mid-September, and gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon nationally while diesel remained expensive. President Donald Trump said the United States wouldn't attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, but he left open the possibility of resuming attacks afterward.
War Costs and Election Pressure
Trump made the announcement Thursday as Republicans faced tight or uphill congressional races in Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, states he easily won two years ago. Opposition to the war and anger over high gasoline and diesel prices were prime reasons for those difficult races, CNN reported.
More than 7 in 10 voters in Iowa and Ohio said Trump's policies had increased the cost of living, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday. A Pew Research Center report released the same day found that 74% of Americans were concerned about gas and energy prices, compared with 43% before the war.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that his blockade of Iran's oil exports and ships had reduced Iran to a “very bad condition.” He added, “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.” The war, which Trump had said would last weeks, had reached its eighth month.
The economic burden went well beyond gasoline. Fighting between Yemen's Houthis and Saudi Arabia intensified, pushing benchmark Brent crude up 4% on Thursday. The conflict could spread across multiple fronts, and Americans wouldn't recover the additional money they had spent on gasoline even if prices fell before Election Day.
Blockade, Military Spending and Oil
Officials argued that the U.S. blockade was working, but the article reported no political benefit for Republican candidates. Iran's hold on the Strait of Hormuz had weakened, and oil flows from Gulf states other than Iran had returned almost to normal through an operation the U.S. military coordinated. The improvement remained fragile. Reuters reported seven crossings of the strait on Tuesday, the lowest level in more than two months, followed by 10 on Wednesday as attacks and harassment of tankers increased.
Trump rejected Iran's offer at the end of September to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks in return for easing the blockade. On the campaign trail, he struggled to convince Americans that his strategy would work, despite what CNN described as the most sustained and comprehensive economic coercion the United States had ever used against Iran.
At G20 talks on August 31, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “I think it could be within weeks or months — and the (Iranian) economy doesn't have to collapse, we just have to have the regime come to their senses.” Iran faced soaring inflation and a tumbling currency, the rial. National security adviser Mohsen Rezaei said the country was facing one of its most difficult periods, according to The New York Times, citing the official IRNA news agency.
More Attacks Still on the Table
The Wall Street Journal reported the previous week that the administration was sending another aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. The newspaper also reported that Trump had recently told aides he expected to resume bombing Iran after the midterms.
If Democrats won the House or Senate, a political confrontation over presidential war powers and military financing could narrow Trump's room for action. Confrontations were expected the following year over the war powers and financing of operations against Iran. Trump had promised in his second inaugural address, 20 months earlier, that his success would be measured by “the wars we never get into.”