President Donald Trump said Thursday that the United States won’t attack Iran again before next month’s midterm elections. CNN described the pledge as an implicit admission that the war is hurting Republicans at the ballot box. He didn’t say the fighting was over. He said it would wait.
Trump predicted the war would last weeks. It is now in its eighth month. In his second inaugural address, 20 months ago, he said his success would be measured by “the wars we never get into.”
Who Is Bearing the Cost
For ordinary Americans, the price shows up at the pump. Gasoline averages $4.36 a gallon nationally, while diesel remains expensive even after falling from record highs last month. A Pew Research Center report released Thursday found that 74% of Americans are concerned about gas and energy prices, up from 43% before the war began.
A CNN/SSRS poll found that more than 7 in 10 voters in Iowa and Ohio, both home to critical Senate contests, said Trump’s policies had increased the cost of living. Opposition to the war and anger over fuel prices are prime reasons Republicans face uphill or tight races in Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, states Trump won easily two years ago. Even some in his own party are sounding the alarm. Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers said in a video late last month, “The war in Iran needs to end, and end quickly.”
Taxpayers’ costs are climbing too. Military operations against Iran had cost $45 billion by mid-September. Families who’ve already paid more for gasoline won’t get that money back, even if prices fall before Election Day.
A Blockade Without a Breakthrough
Trump wrote on Truth Social that his blockade of Iran’s oil exports and ships had reduced the country to a “very bad condition,” adding, “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.” The announcement followed reports by the Atlantic and Axios that he was weighing a return to major combat operations before the Nov. 3 vote, hoping to show resolve and persuade Americans that the war would end and gasoline prices would fall.
Trump has often reversed his Iran strategy and statements, at times apparently seeking to confuse Iranian leaders. That leaves real uncertainty over whether the pledge will hold.
Officials say the blockade is working. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at G20 talks on August 31, “I think it could be within weeks or months — and the (Iranian) economy doesn’t have to collapse, we just have to have the regime come to their senses.” Iran is suffering soaring inflation and a tumbling currency. But Trump rejected Iran’s offer at the end of September to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks in return for easing the blockade. Iran’s national security adviser, Mohsen Rezaei, answered defiantly: “You lost the military war. You will fail in the economic war, too.”
The Strait of Hormuz remains fragile. Reuters reported seven crossings Tuesday, the lowest level in more than two months, and 10 on Wednesday after attacks and harassment of tankers increased. Fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia pushed Brent crude up 4% Thursday.
The Pause That May Not Last
Trump didn’t rule out new attacks after the election. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the administration is sending another aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, and that Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing after the midterms.
At a Cabinet meeting in May, Trump said of Iran, “They thought they were going to outwait me,” and added, “I don’t care about the midterms.” Late that same month, he predicted, “I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn’t make sense for them not to.”
If Democrats win the House or Senate, a confrontation over presidential war powers and financing of military operations is expected next year. Another round of attacks would raise a pointed question: why would a new strike change Iran’s position if earlier aerial attacks didn’t?
Why This Matters: A war declared in the name of quick victory is now being scheduled around an election calendar, while households watch fuel and living costs climb. Voters are being asked to cast ballots without knowing whether bombing resumes the day after. That uncertainty, combined with $45 billion in costs and a deployment buildup, strengthens the case for congressional oversight of war powers and funding. If Democrats win a chamber, lawmakers would gain leverage to demand answers about strategy, legal authority and spending. The pause itself shows how much public pressure can matter, even as the conflict remains unresolved.