President Donald Trump said the United States wouldn’t attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. The war’s costs and rising fuel prices weigh on voters and Republican candidates. The conflict has cost $45 billion by mid-September, and Trump hasn’t ruled out resuming attacks after the election.
The war has entered its eighth month, despite Trump’s promise of a quick victory. Opposition to the conflict and anger over high gasoline and diesel prices are among the reasons Republicans face uphill or tight congressional races in Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, states Trump easily won two years ago.
Voters and the cost of war
A CNN/SSRS poll found that more than 7 in 10 voters in Iowa and Ohio said Trump’s policies had increased the cost of living. A Pew Research Center report found that 74% of Americans were concerned about gas and energy prices, compared with 43% before the war.
Gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon nationally. Diesel remained expensive despite falling from record highs the previous month. Fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia intensified, pushing benchmark Brent crude up 4% on Thursday. Even if prices fell before Election Day, Americans wouldn’t recover the extra money they’d already spent on gasoline.
Iran has obstructed oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere, bringing the conflict directly into the election campaign. Reuters reported seven crossings of the strait on Tuesday and 10 on Wednesday, after attacks and harassment of tankers increased. The U.S. military coordinated an operation that brought oil flows from Gulf states other than Iran almost back to normal, but the improvement remained fragile.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that his blockade of Iran’s oil exports and ships had reduced the country to a “very bad condition,” then said, “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.” The statement followed reports by the Atlantic and Axios that he was considering major combat operations before the election to show resolve and convince Americans the war would end and gasoline prices would fall.
War powers and the next decision
Trump’s election-calendar announcement was described as the clearest indication yet that he recognizes the war’s effect on Republican candidates. He had promised in his second inaugural address, 20 months earlier, that his success would be measured by “the wars we never get into.” He has also frequently reversed his Iran strategy and statements, leaving uncertainty about whether his latest position will hold.
The prospect that Democrats could win at least one chamber of Congress in November raises the possibility of a political confrontation over war financing and Trump’s legal standing in conducting the war. Further disputes over presidential war powers and military funding are expected the following year. By mid-September, the financial cost had reached $45 billion.
Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers said in a social media video, “The war in Iran needs to end, and end quickly.” Trump, meanwhile, said at a Cabinet meeting in May, “I don't care about the midterms.” Late the previous month, he said, “I believe we'll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn't make sense for them not to,” adding that Iran was waiting to see how he did in the midterm election.
Blockade, deployments and possible escalation
Trump rejected Iran’s offer at the end of September to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks in return for easing the blockade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at G20 talks on August 31, “I think it could be within weeks or months — and the (Iranian) economy doesn't have to collapse, we just have to have the regime come to their senses.”
Iran’s national security adviser Mohsen Rezaei said the country was facing one of its most difficult periods, according to the New York Times, citing the official IRNA news agency. Rezaei later wrote on X, “Bessent's delusional forecasts never had any credibility in the first place,” and said, “You lost the military war. You will fail in the economic war, too.”
The Wall Street Journal reported the previous week that the administration was sending another aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. It also reported that Trump had told aides he expected to resume bombing Iran after the midterms. Waiting until voters cast ballots could ease immediate political pressure, but new attacks could send oil, gasoline and diesel prices soaring again.