On 30 September 2026, three ministers handed President José Raúl Mulino a 35-page report recommending that Panama’s largest mine reopen only to pay for its own shutdown. The report calls for talks with Canadian owner First Quantum Minerals about a limited restart. Revenue would fund an orderly closure, settle arbitration claims and rule out any extension. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MICI) published the full document online.
First Quantum operates the mine through its subsidiary, Minera Panamá. The report makes 17 recommendations and sets six criteria, which Mulino has accepted as non-negotiable.
The Conditions on a Restart
The commission lays out strict terms. The site’s footprint can’t expand; it must shrink in stages. Any agreement would set a final-closure date and dated milestones for each part of the site. Officials must identify, cost and pay for irreversible damage.
The deal also can’t take the form of a concession or a contract-law, which the report describes as the type of contract the Supreme Court struck down. Law 407 of 2023 bars new mining concessions in Panama. A share of state income from the site would automatically go to an environmental fund run by the Environment Ministry. A published legal opinion would need to show that the deal avoids the flaws identified by the court.
“The site pays for its own closure, or there is no deal,” said Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapman.
The Price of Doing Nothing
The commission sets out figures for both paths. In March 2024, MICI estimated that closure would cost US$800 million to US$1 billion over seven to nine years. Upkeep afterward would cost US$15 million to US$20 million a month, adding US$1.8 billion to US$2.4 billion. Without a deal, the commission estimates total costs of US$2.6 billion to US$3.4 billion over 17 to 19 years. That’s as much as 9.7% of Panama’s 2026 state budget.
Closing a mine this size takes decades of engineering work, the report says. The tailings dam, which stores mining waste, has 164 instruments under constant monitoring.
Arbitration creates another burden. First Quantum and the project’s financial partners launched international cases after the November 2023 ruling, which came 2 years and 10 months before this report. Their claims total at least US$27 billion at minimum amounts, about 30% of Panama’s GDP, as calculated by En Segundos. Panama hasn’t accepted the claims as a debt and says it will defend itself. No tribunal has ruled on their merits. The 17th recommendation makes ending every case a mandatory condition of any agreement.
Jobs, Communities and Unfinished Business
The commission estimates that each day without a decision costs Panama an average of US$6.85 million in export earnings and about US$1.28 million in tax revenue. The report says the 2023 shutdown eliminated more than 6,000 direct jobs and about 30,000 indirect jobs. The current phase, processing ore extracted before the shutdown, has created 2,300 direct jobs. The site funds this work, not taxpayers. Exports of 121,000 tonnes of stored copper concentrate brought the state US$30 million in royalties.
The report calls for an immediate programme providing water, sanitation, health and electricity to nearby communities in Donoso, the district in Colón province where the mine sits. Weeks of street protests came before the 2023 court ruling that ended the previous contract.
First Quantum says it will engage “constructively and in good faith” toward a legal framework aligned with Panama’s constitution. It awaits government guidance on next steps. Mulino says he’ll study the remaining material with his cabinet and lawyers before announcing a decision. He hasn’t set a date. The report sets no date for future activity at the site and approves no contract or payment.
Why This Matters: Panama faces a decision in which both the costs of inaction and the risks of a deal fall on the public. The report would make the site’s own revenue pay for cleanup, require officials to cost and pay for damage, and direct state income to an environmental fund. Taxpayers aren’t left to cover the bill. The report also puts Donoso residents’ needs on the agenda, naming water, sanitation, health and electricity as immediate priorities. The US$27 billion in arbitration claims shows how much leverage a foreign investor can hold over a national budget. Requiring an end to every case as a condition gives the public some protection. Whether Mulino accepts the remaining recommendations is still open, and the decision will test how far democratic oversight can shape a deal over a resource that sparked weeks of protest.