Costa Rica’s Farmers Face El Niño’s Unequal Costs

Costa Rican coffee growers expect a harvest 10% to 15% smaller than initially estimated, as irregular rains and rising heat squeeze farms across the country. The Central Bank of Costa Rica now expects the farm sector to contract in 2027, shifting the forecast from growth to decline while producers and agricultural workers face mounting losses.

Farmers absorb the shock

Cattle producers are building water reservoirs and pasture reserves as they prepare for the dry season, Luis Diego Obando, executive director of the Livestock Corporation, said. Corfoga is coordinating with the National Emergency Commission. National livestock production hasn’t yet been affected, Obando said, although rain has already caused problems in the northern zone and ranchers expect the hardest effects when dry conditions begin.

Miguel Barquero, deputy director of the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica, said irregular rainfall delayed fertilization by about 30 days. Harvest estimates have fallen across the country’s coffee regions, and export-grade green coffee is losing quality and weight. Coffee growers have also blamed exchange-rate pressures, input costs and higher diesel prices for farm job cuts.

The Central Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report projected agricultural growth of 0.7% in 2026, followed by a 0.5% contraction in 2027. It cited the larger decline in coffee production, lower onion and sugarcane output, El Niño’s effects and higher international fertilizer prices. As recently as April, the bank had forecast 0.8% growth in the farm sector for 2027.

Forecasts from above, losses in the fields

The National Meteorological Institute projects higher temperatures in December and January. Citing those projections, the Central Bank said El Niño was expected to remain in the very strong category from October 2026 through February 2027, then ease to strong in March and April. Rainfall was forecast to fall about 60% in the North Pacific and about 40% elsewhere on the Pacific coast, in Upala, Los Chiles, Guatuso and the Central Valley. The Caribbean slope and the rest of the Northern Zone were expected to receive 10% to 15% more rain than average.

The bank said pineapple and coffee are especially exposed because much of their production lies in areas where rainfall is expected to be scarce. Higher temperatures could spread fungi and plant disease. For livestock, reduced pasture and water could lower productivity and raise operating costs. In its July report, the bank had warned that climate shocks could cause a negative supply shock, mainly in agriculture, and add to inflationary pressure.

Rice growers are already reporting damage in different regions. Mainor Cruz, executive director of the National Rice Corporation, said the Brunca region and Central Pacific had losses linked to rainfall deficits, while Huetar Norte had problems from excess rain. The losses couldn’t yet be quantified, and a technical assessment was under way; November was a key month for the North Pacific harvest.

Water, disease and unanswered proposals

The National Banana Corporation said excess rain had affected nearly all banana-growing cantons on the Caribbean side, flooding some plantations for 12 to 36 hours. A plantation needs about 200 millimeters of rain a month, but some Caribbean areas recorded 280 millimeters in two days in August. The wet pattern has also threatened the region’s cacao harvest. Temperatures 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above average favor black sigatoka, a fungal disease, and the corporation said El Niño’s effects could last until June 2027.

Melon and watermelon producers expect a strong rise in pests, mainly insects, during the November-to-May season. Sigurd Vargas, president of the exporters’ chamber Caproexmes, warned of possible heat-related flowering losses. He said planted area, hiring and exports were likely to fall because of the exchange rate, input costs and higher diesel prices. Vargas also said the Agriculture Ministry hadn’t responded to a bio-input proposal submitted by the sector on May 26.

Pineapple growers hadn’t yet felt an impact, Abel Chaves, president of the producers’ chamber Canapep, said. Excess rain in the Atlantic zone could block machinery access, and because harvests are planned a year ahead, any decline in volume would likely appear in late 2026 or early 2027. Costa Rica had issued its first red alert at sea as drought affected Guanacaste. The forecasts are made at the top; the shrinking harvests, rising costs and threatened jobs land on the people working the fields.