Mississippi Senate Race Tests the Grip of Party Power

A Wedgewood Polls survey puts Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith ahead of Democrat Scott Colom, 52% to 48%, in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race. The four-point gap sits inside the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error. The seat belongs to an institution with power over people throughout the state, and the survey offers a close snapshot, not a verdict on who’ll win.

If Colom wins, he’d become Mississippi’s first Democratic senator elected since 1982. The election is set for Nov. 3, with independent candidate Ty Pinkins also on the ballot. But Wedgewood tested only Hyde-Smith and Colom, so Pinkins didn’t figure in its head-to-head measure of a three-candidate contest.

The people in the numbers

Wedgewood surveyed 511 likely voters from Oct. 12-14. Colom drew 91% support among Black voters and led 56% to 44% among voters aged 18 to 29. Hyde-Smith had 78% support among white voters and 88% among respondents who recalled voting for President Donald Trump in 2024. Black voters accounted for 37% of the weighted sample; subgroup margins of error were larger.

Pinkins says both major parties have failed ordinary Mississippians. A Mississippi native, retired U.S. Army veteran of 21 years and public-interest attorney, he’s made more affordable health care, investment in rural communities and education, voting-rights protections, support for veterans and curbing political corruption part of his campaign. Those are the concerns he’s put forward. The available poll doesn’t show how voters would choose among all three candidates.

Colom, a seventh-generation Mississippian and district attorney based in Columbus, has campaigned on wages, living costs, hospitals and job creation. Sen. Cory Booker joined him in Gulfport on Oct. 2 to launch a statewide get-out-the-vote drive. Booker told supporters, “What you do matters. The power of the people is greater than the people in power.” Former Democratic President Barack Obama later appeared in an advertisement supporting Colom. Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester also campaigned with him.

Polls, money and the party apparatus

Wedgewood Polls independently designed and funded its survey. The firm drew respondents from an online panel, screened them for registration and likelihood of voting, and weighted results by gender, age, race, ethnicity and education. The Wall Street Journal reported the previous month that Democratic donors were directing money to the race as a possible target.

Other surveys offer different snapshots. Data for Progress surveyed 1,018 likely voters from Aug. 5-15 and gave Hyde-Smith a six-point lead in a two-candidate matchup. In a three-candidate test, Hyde-Smith had 44%, Colom 38%, Pinkins 7% and 11% were undecided. Way to Lead PAC, affiliated with Colom, commissioned the survey; its margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An April Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters put Hyde-Smith at 42%, Colom at 39% and Pinkins at 6%, with 14% undecided. The Democratic-aligned SPLC Action Fund sponsored the poll, conducted April 8-12. The Newsweek story described the latest result as one poll within the margin of error, not evidence of a trend. It said reporters and editors used Martyn, its AI assistant, to produce the story.

A long-held seat and a narrow opening

Trump carried Mississippi in three consecutive presidential elections: by about 18 points in 2016, roughly 16.5 points in 2020, and 22.9 points in 2024. In 2024, he received 747,744 votes to Kamala Harris’s 466,668. Hyde-Smith has emphasized border security, gun rights and opposition to abortion. Her campaign has sought to link Colom to nationally prominent Democrats and progressive donors.

Democrats saw an opening in 2025 state legislative special elections. They flipped two Republican-held Senate districts and a House seat, ending the GOP’s two-thirds Senate supermajority. Those contests followed court-ordered redistricting that created additional majority-Black districts. Colom would also become the first Black candidate popularly elected to represent Mississippi in the Senate. The state’s earlier Black senators, Hiram Revels and Blanche K. Bruce, served during Reconstruction, before the Constitution established direct Senate elections.