Hyde-Smith Holds Lead in Mississippi Senate Race Poll

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith leads Democrat Scott Colom 52% to 48% in a new Wedgewood Polls survey of Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race. The four-point gap falls inside the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error. Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the contest from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” though the forecaster still considers Hyde-Smith the favorite.

Democrats are talking up the numbers. The context matters more.

What the Poll Actually Shows

The survey of 511 likely voters ran Oct. 12-14. It tested only Hyde-Smith and Colom, although independent Ty Pinkins is also on the Nov. 3 ballot, making the head-to-head result an incomplete measure of the full contest. Researchers drew respondents from an online panel and weighted them by gender, age, race, ethnicity and education. Black voters made up 37% of the weighted sample, and subgroup margins of error exceeded the topline figure.

Newsweek, the first outlet to report the result, called it a single poll within the margin of error that didn’t establish a trend.

The crosstabs show a state still divided along familiar lines. Hyde-Smith drew 78% support among white voters and 88% among respondents who recalled voting for President Donald Trump in 2024. Colom won 91% support among Black voters and led 56% to 44% among voters aged 18 to 29.

The Broader Polling Picture

Other surveys this year have put Hyde-Smith further ahead. A Data for Progress poll of 1,018 likely voters, conducted Aug. 5-15, gave her a six-point lead in a two-candidate matchup. In a three-candidate test, she had 44%, Colom 38%, Pinkins 7% and 11% were undecided. Way to Lead PAC commissioned that survey; the PAC is affiliated with Colom, so the poll came from his own side.

An April Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters, sponsored by the Democratic-aligned SPLC Action Fund, put Hyde-Smith at 42%, Colom at 39% and Pinkins at 6%, with 14% undecided. Even surveys tied to Democrats have found the incumbent ahead.

The Electoral Terrain

Mississippi hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since John C. Stennis won his final term in 1982. That’s 44 years. Trump carried the state by about 18 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016, roughly 16.5 points over Joe Biden in 2020, and 22.9 points over Kamala Harris in 2024, with 747,744 votes to 466,668.

Democrats point to 2025 state legislative special elections, when they flipped two Republican-held Senate districts and a House seat and ended the GOP’s two-thirds Senate supermajority. Court-ordered redistricting preceded those contests and created additional majority-Black districts; a statewide race doesn’t share that change in the map.

The Campaigns

Colom, a seventh-generation Mississippian and district attorney based in Columbus, has campaigned on wages, living costs, hospitals and job creation. Sen. Cory Booker joined him in Gulfport on Oct. 2 to launch a statewide get-out-the-vote drive. “What you do matters. The power of the people is greater than the people in power,” Booker told supporters. Former Democratic President Barack Obama later appeared in an advertisement for Colom, and Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester also campaigned with him.

Money is following the attention. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Democratic donors were directing resources to the race as a possible target. Hyde-Smith’s campaign has responded by emphasizing border security, gun rights and opposition to abortion, while seeking to link Colom to nationally prominent Democrats and progressive donors.

Pinkins, a Mississippi native, retired Army veteran of 21 years and public-interest attorney, argues both major parties have failed ordinary Mississippians. His platform stresses affordable health care, rural investment, education, voting-rights protections, veterans’ support and curbing political corruption.

Why This Matters:

A single poll inside its margin of error isn’t a trend. The numbers say as much. Hyde-Smith still leads in every survey cited, including two sponsored by Democratic-aligned groups. Still, an influx of out-of-state donors and national surrogates shows how much outside money and attention can reshape a race experts once called safe. For Republicans, the lesson is organization: a lead built on three straight double-digit presidential wins only holds if voters turn out. For the Senate, the stakes stretch beyond Mississippi. Every seat counts in a closely divided chamber, and a Colom win would end a 44-year Democratic drought. The result on Nov. 3 will show whether national money can overcome the state’s long-standing partisan lean.