Mississippi Senate Race Draws Democratic Donor Money

A Wedgewood Polls survey put Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith ahead of Democrat Scott Colom, 52% to 48%, a four-point gap within the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error, as Democratic donors directed money toward the Mississippi Senate race. The survey questioned 511 likely voters from Oct. 12-14. Hyde-Smith remains favored, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the contest from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”

Black voters gave Colom 91% support, while voters aged 18 to 29 backed him 56% to 44%. Black voters made up 37% of the weighted sample. Hyde-Smith won 78% support among white voters and 88% among respondents who recalled voting for President Donald Trump in 2024.

Campaign Money and the Polls

The Wedgewood survey had independent design and funding. Researchers drew respondents from an online panel, screened them for registration and likelihood of voting, then weighted results by gender, age, race, ethnicity and education. Subgroup margins of error ran larger.

The survey tested only Hyde-Smith and Colom, though Independent Ty Pinkins is also on the Nov. 3 ballot. Its head-to-head result therefore doesn’t measure the full contest. Newsweek described it as one poll within the margin of error and said it didn’t establish a trend.

A separate Data for Progress survey of 1,018 likely voters, conducted Aug. 5-15, gave Hyde-Smith a six-point lead in a two-candidate matchup. In a three-candidate test, Hyde-Smith received 44%, Colom 38%, Pinkins 7%, and 11% were undecided. Way to Lead PAC, affiliated with Colom, commissioned the survey; its margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An April Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters put Hyde-Smith at 42%, Colom at 39% and Pinkins at 6%, with 14% undecided. The Democratic-aligned SPLC Action Fund sponsored the survey, conducted April 8-12. The Wall Street Journal reported the previous month that Democratic donors were directing money to the race as a possible target.

What the Candidates Offer

Colom, a seventh-generation Mississippian and district attorney based in Columbus, has campaigned on wages, living costs, hospitals and job creation. Former Democratic President Barack Obama appeared in an advertisement backing him, while Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester campaigned with him.

Sen. Cory Booker joined Colom in Gulfport on Oct. 2 to launch a statewide get-out-the-vote drive. “What you do matters. The power of the people is greater than the people in power,” Booker told supporters.

Hyde-Smith has emphasized border security, gun rights and opposition to abortion. Her campaign has tried to link Colom to nationally prominent Democrats and progressive donors.

Pinkins, a Mississippi native, is a retired U.S. Army veteran of 21 years and a public-interest attorney. His campaign emphasizes more affordable health care, investment in rural communities and education, voting-rights protections, support for veterans and curbing political corruption. He says both major parties haven’t served ordinary Mississippians.

Districts and Electoral Power

Democrats saw an opening in 2025 state legislative special elections, flipping two Republican-held Senate districts and a House seat and ending the GOP’s two-thirds Senate supermajority. The contests followed court-ordered redistricting that created additional majority-Black districts.

Trump carried Mississippi in three consecutive presidential elections, defeating Hillary Clinton by about 18 points in 2016, Joe Biden by roughly 16.5 points in 2020, and Kamala Harris by 22.9 points in 2024. No Democrat has won a Mississippi Senate election since John C. Stennis secured his final term in 1982.

Colom would become Mississippi’s first Democratic senator elected since 1982 and the first Black candidate popularly elected to represent the state in the Senate if he wins. The state’s earlier Black senators, Hiram Revels and Blanche K. Bruce, served during Reconstruction, before the Constitution established direct Senate elections.