Mississippi Race Tests Long Republican Senate Hold

A Wedgewood Polls survey gives Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith a 52% to 48% lead over Democrat Scott Colom in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race, a difference within the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error. The survey reached 511 likely voters from Oct. 12-14. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” but still favors Hyde-Smith. One poll doesn't establish a trend.

A narrow poll, a long Republican record

Mississippi hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since John C. Stennis secured his final term in 1982. Hyde-Smith’s latest lead sits close enough to the margin of error that it doesn't establish a change in that record. The election is set for Nov. 3, and independent candidate Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot. Wedgewood tested only Hyde-Smith and Colom, so its head-to-head result doesn't capture the full contest.

The survey’s voting blocs split sharply by race and age. Colom won 91% support among Black voters and led 56% to 44% among voters aged 18 to 29. Hyde-Smith had 78% support among white voters and 88% among respondents who recalled voting for President Donald Trump in 2024. Black voters accounted for 37% of the weighted sample. Subgroup margins of error exceeded the poll’s overall margin.

Wedgewood Polls designed and funded the survey independently. Respondents came from an online panel; pollsters screened them for voter registration and likelihood of voting, then weighted the results by gender, age, race, ethnicity and education. Those details define what the poll measured—and what it didn't.

Donors and campaigns enter the contest

The Wall Street Journal reported the previous month that Democratic donors were directing money to Mississippi as a possible target. Sen. Cory Booker joined Colom in Gulfport on Oct. 2 to launch a statewide get-out-the-vote drive. Booker told supporters, “What you do matters. The power of the people is greater than the people in power.” Former Democratic President Barack Obama later appeared in an advertisement backing Colom. Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester also campaigned with him.

Colom, a seventh-generation Mississippian and district attorney based in Columbus, has centered his campaign on wages, living costs, hospitals and job creation. If elected, he would become Mississippi’s first Democratic senator since 1982 and the first Black candidate popularly elected to represent the state in the Senate. Earlier Black senators from the state, Hiram Revels and Blanche K. Bruce, served during Reconstruction, before the Constitution established direct Senate elections.

Three-candidate results complicate the picture

A separate Data for Progress survey of 1,018 likely voters, conducted Aug. 5-15, gave Hyde-Smith a six-point lead in a two-candidate matchup. In a three-candidate test, Hyde-Smith had 44%, Colom 38%, Pinkins 7% and 11% were undecided. Way to Lead PAC, which is affiliated with Colom, commissioned the survey; its margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An April Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters put Hyde-Smith at 42%, Colom at 39% and Pinkins at 6%, with 14% undecided. The Democratic-aligned SPLC Action Fund sponsored that survey, which pollsters conducted April 8-12. Pinkins, a Mississippi native, retired U.S. Army veteran of 21 years and public-interest attorney, says both major parties have failed ordinary Mississippians. His campaign emphasizes affordable health care, rural investment, education, voting-rights protections, veterans and curbing political corruption.

Trump carried Mississippi by about 18 points in 2016, roughly 16.5 points in 2020 and 22.9 points in 2024. Hyde-Smith has stressed border security, gun rights and opposition to abortion; her campaign has tried to link Colom to nationally prominent Democrats and progressive donors. Newsweek reported that it contacted both campaigns by email Thursday morning and said its reporters and editors used Martyn, its AI assistant, to produce the story.