Iran and the US are engaged in a race to locate a crew member of a crashed American fighter jet, while the wider conflict keeps forcing Gulf states to rearrange their defenses and diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz. A US strike on an Iranian suspension bridge suggests a potential shift in war strategy. The US has pledged to target more Iranian infrastructure as nations work to open the Strait of Hormuz. **The Strait and the People Caught in Its Shadow** Iran has again struck the Gulf, hitting a Kuwait refinery, leading to the UAE shutting down its gas hub. Kuwait's international airport experienced an Iranian drone attack on April 1, 2026, resulting in a large fire at a fuel depot. US intelligence sources indicate that Iran is unlikely to ease its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz soon. That chokehold is not a metaphor for the people living under it; it is a supply route, a pressure point, and a weapon in the hands of states. Trump criticized Europe over Hormuz on March 31, 2026, stating on Truth Social that European states “will have to start learning how to fight for yourself.” The line is blunt, and so is the logic behind it: the powerful outsource the costs, then scold everyone else when the arrangement falters. **Defense Systems, Dealmakers, and Managed Crisis** Despite the war, Gulf dealmaking continues, with dealmakers from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar pursuing tech and AI opportunities. The region’s elite keep shopping for future profit while the infrastructure around them takes the hits. The Gulf region is strengthening its defense ties with Ukraine, as Gulf states are rapidly integrating Ukraine into their defense systems. This move comes as sustained Iranian strikes have exposed weaknesses in existing air and missile defenses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Emirati President Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on March 28, 2026. The arrangement is presented as adaptation, but the facts show a region scrambling to patch holes in systems built to protect states and assets, not people. US firms are in Iran’s crosshairs, with Iranian threats, fuel shortages, and energy windfalls highlighting the increasing economic impact of regional tensions. The Iran War at One Month: Outlook and Implications was a topic of discussion. Ukraine's Zelenskyy is leveraging the Iran war to finalize a security agreement with Saudi Arabia. **Institutions Talking Food, Digital Life, and Power** The AL-Monitor Global Institute hosted a food security forum with Dr. Conrad Rein, Secretary of the Global Flagship Initiative for Food Security, on October 16, 2025. The discussion included representatives from multilateral development banks and the private sector, focusing on food security in the Middle East and Africa. The same institute hosted Deemah AlYahya, Secretary-General of the Digital Cooperation Organization, on September 21, 2025, for a discussion on digital inclusion and economic empowerment in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. On May 22, 2025, the AL-Monitor Global Institute hosted Iraqi Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Washington DC to discuss the future of power and energy in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The language is all coordination, inclusion, and empowerment, while the region’s actual security and energy systems remain organized from the top down. French and Japanese ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such crossings since the war began. The crossings show that even amid the crisis, the route remains a stage for state power, military risk, and commercial necessity. The people who depend on the route do not get to vote on whether it stays open; they live with the consequences either way.
