Iran and the US are engaged in a race to locate a crew member of a crashed American fighter jet as the Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic choke point and Gulf states move to harden their defenses.
Who Pays
Iran has again struck the Gulf, hitting a Kuwait refinery, leading to the UAE shutting down its gas hub. Kuwait's international airport experienced an Iranian drone attack on April 1, 2026, resulting in a large fire at a fuel depot. US intelligence sources indicate that Iran is unlikely to ease its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz soon.
US firms are in Iran’s crosshairs, with Iranian threats, fuel shortages, and energy windfalls highlighting the increasing economic impact of regional tensions. The war in Iran has impacted financial markets. The EU has warned that oil and gas prices will not immediately return to normal even if the Iran war concludes.
Pakistanis are facing an unprecedented fuel price increase of up to 54% due to global oil price spikes. JetBlue has increased its checked bag fees by up to $9 due to the Iran war's impact on fuel costs. Iraq’s oil hub is experiencing a slowdown due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, which is hindering exports.
The State's Role
A US strike on an Iranian suspension bridge suggests a potential shift in war strategy. The US has pledged to target more Iranian infrastructure as nations work to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump criticized Europe over Hormuz on March 31, 2026, stating on Truth Social that European states “will have to start learning how to fight for yourself.”
Despite the war, Gulf dealmaking continues, with dealmakers from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar pursuing tech and AI opportunities. The Gulf region is strengthening its defense ties with Ukraine, as Gulf states are rapidly integrating Ukraine into their defense systems. This move comes as sustained Iranian strikes have exposed weaknesses in existing air and missile defenses.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Emirati President Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on March 28, 2026. Ukraine's Zelenskyy is leveraging the Iran war to finalize a security agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Labor, Shipping, and Mediation
French and Japanese ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such crossings since the war began. A ship with French ownership passed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, 2026, a day after French President Emmanuel Macron stated that a military operation to reopen it would be unrealistic.
Iran and the US are engaged in a race to locate a crew member of a crashed American fighter jet. A report stated that US Special Forces were conducting a rescue operation in Iran for a downed airman on April 3, 2026. Iran-U.S. talks were at a dead end as Qatar declined a central mediation role on April 3, 2026.
The Gulf kingdom of Bahrain is cracking down on dissent as the Iran war reignites internal unrest. An Iranian projectile struck an industrial area in Ma'ameer, Bahrain, on March 9, 2026. Three UN peacekeepers in Lebanon were wounded in relation to the ongoing regional tensions, as reported in connection with the Bahrain-related article.
The AL-Monitor Global Institute hosted a food security forum with Dr. Conrad Rein, Secretary of the Global Flagship Initiative for Food Security, on October 16, 2025. The discussion included representatives from multilateral development banks and the private sector, focusing on food security in the Middle East and Africa. The AL-Monitor Global Institute also hosted Deemah AlYahya, Secretary-General of the Digital Cooperation Organization, on September 21, 2025, for a discussion on digital inclusion and economic empowerment in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. On May 22, 2025, the AL-Monitor Global Institute hosted Iraqi Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Washington DC to discuss the future of power and energy in Iraq’s Kurdistan region.