President Donald Trump's approval rating plummeted to 32% in late September, the lowest of his political career, as Republicans joined Democrats in expressing frustration over rising costs tied to the Iran conflict that began Feb. 28. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,277 adults nationwide released Sept. 21 found just 17% approved of Trump's handling of the cost of living, which respondents identified as the top issue determining their November votes.
The political damage cuts deepest in Trump's rural base. Nearly seven in 10 rural voters supported Trump in the 2024 election, but about two-thirds now express concern about affording gas or healthcare, according to an Associated Press poll conducted in partnership with KFF. The survey of more than 2,000 registered voters over two weeks in late August found about 60% worried about grocery and utility costs, compared to 40% who weren't.
Economic Pressures Mount
Gas prices averaged $4.49 on Sept. 25, up from $2.87 in late January, according to AAA. Diesel fuel hit $6.50 per gallon on Sept. 25, after breaking $6 on Sept. 11 for the first time ever. Higher diesel costs rippled through the economy because of increased transportation expenses. Fuel prices surged because of Iran's threat to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump defended the economic impact. "A small price to pay" for preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, he said of higher fuel costs.
About two-thirds of registered voters disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy and the war with Iran, according to a Quinnipiac University poll that surveyed 970 registered voters Sept. 3 to 6. About 60% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of Russia's war with Ukraine, trade with Canada and foreign policy. Tim Malloy, a Quinnipiac University polling analyst, said, "While neither (party) gets high marks generally, the Democrats are judged more empathetic when it comes to the concerns of voters."
Republican Frustration Grows
Some 82% of poll respondents, including nine in 10 Democrats and three-quarters of Republicans, said the conflict would likely go on for an "extended period of time." Trump initially said the war would last weeks. After six months, he predicted it would end soon after the Nov. 3 midterm elections for Congress.
Four Senate Republicans — Alaska's Lisa Murkowski, North Carolina's Thom Tillis, Kentucky's Rand Paul and Maine's Susan Collins — supported a resolution Sept. 24 to end the war, although the measure failed.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Michigan, who was campaigning to succeed Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, said on social media Sept. 21 and in a television ad that the Iran war needed to end. "The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly," Rogers said in the ad, which featured his first name in red and last name in blue. Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, who was campaigning to succeed GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, said on social media Sept. 21 that Iowans shouldn't have to foot the bill for the Iran war with higher grocery prices. But she also voted four times against resolutions to end the war immediately. "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran," Hinson said. Both candidates supported suspending the gas tax and diesel exports.
Foreign Policy Focus Amid Domestic Concerns
Since Labor Day, the traditional start of the campaign season, Trump focused on foreign affairs. He traveled to Ireland on Sept. 12 and 13 for a meeting with the prime minister and a golf tournament. He spoke at the United Nations on Sept. 22, threatening to "annihilate" Iran and predicting the failure of Cuba's government. Trump said he had "a very good meeting" with Xi on Sept. 24 without elaborating, and said on Sept. 25 while hosting Xi for tea in the White House's Red Room, "A lot of very positive things happened," adding that farmers would be happy without elaborating. "Great things for both countries. It's been just very, very productive."
Trump gave significant attention to domestic issues during his speech Sept. 22 to the United Nations General Assembly. He promoted investment in the United States, a lower crime rate and heightened border security. He has argued that eliminating taxes on overtime, tips and Social Security benefits, and negotiating lower prices for prescription drugs, should make for a winning ticket in November. Trump said, "America is rising. Our nation is growing. Our power is expanding," and, "Our country is doing better than ever before, and our future is very, very bright." But foreign affairs dominated the speech and headlines focused on his threat to "annihilate" Iran, his prediction that Cuba's government "will fall" and that the "spoils" of Venezuelan oil from removing that country's president "belong to the victor." Trump also said, "While others have ignored threats, I have confronted them," and, "While others have promised strength, I have used it to make America the most powerful country in the world."
Federal Reserve Compounds Challenges
Another setback to Trump's domestic priorities came days after he returned from a trip to Ireland, when the Federal Reserve Bank raised interest rates Sept. 16 for the first time since July 2023. Trump traveled to Ireland on Sept. 12 and 13 to meet Taoiseach Micheal Martin and attend the Irish Open golf tournament at his resort in Doonbeg. He advocated Irish reunification and ended tariffs on Irish whiskey, which he'd imposed. Trump had earlier appointed a new chair, Kevin Warsh, to the Federal Reserve Bank's board and demanded lower interest rates. But the board voted Sept. 16 to raise rates for the first time since 2023.
Rep. Jason Smith, R-Missouri, who heads the Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxes, echoed Trump in arguing that "interest rates should be coming down, not going up." Smith said in a statement Sept. 16, "American workers, families, and small businesses have waited long enough for relief from high borrowing costs that make it harder to buy a home, start a business, or get ahead." The Fed typically raises rates to tame inflation by making borrowing more expensive, which can lead to less demand and eventually lower prices. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index, a key measure of underlying inflation, posted its largest increase in four months on Sept. 11. Mortgage rates surpassed 7% for the first time in a year, making it harder to buy houses.
Trump told reporters in Ireland on Sept. 13 that the country "should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world," no matter what the Federal Reserve's data indicates about inflation and the economy. He said, "I know more about formulas than anybody, and with the best credit in the world, we make other countries rich."
Trump pledged to campaign heavily during the month before the Nov. 3 midterm elections in about three-dozen competitive races, including traditional Republican territory in Alaska and Texas. "In some cases, you can be losing by a lot and we'll bring you over the line," Trump told Republicans at a Rose Garden dinner Sept. 2.
Why This Matters:
The collision of foreign policy commitments and domestic economic pain presents a fundamental test of voter priorities heading into November's midterm elections. Trump's core rural base, which delivered nearly 70% support in 2024, now faces the direct costs of extended military engagement through higher fuel and food prices. The Federal Reserve's rate increase compounds borrowing costs for families and small businesses already stretched thin. Republican candidates in competitive races face a difficult calculation: supporting Trump's national security strategy while acknowledging constituent concerns about grocery bills and gas pumps. The erosion of Republican support in polling — with three-quarters believing the Iran conflict will continue indefinitely despite Trump's predictions — suggests voters are weighing the tangible costs of policy against promised long-term security gains. With mortgage rates above 7% and diesel at historic highs, the economic consequences of foreign engagement are no longer abstract.