Colombians head to the polls on May 31 amid escalating security threats, as drone attacks by illegal armed groups have surged dramatically under President Gustavo Petro's controversial "total peace" negotiations strategy. Colombia's Defense Ministry reported that drone attacks hit 333 targets in 2025, up from 61 such incidents recorded in 2024, with the army recording 107 drone attacks so far this year that have claimed the lives of two soldiers.
Safety fears are shadowing Colombia's presidential election, with drone attacks and other violence tied to illegal armed groups affecting parts of the country. In Jamundi, Colombia, Gladys Marín said she was unsure whether she would walk across the street to a school where polling stations will open Sunday because her home in the southwestern village of Potrerito sits less than 100 meters from the police station, which has become a frequent target for drone-dropped explosives. "You have to stay alert to what is happening, because we live very close to the police station," Marín said.
The Failure of "Total Peace"
The election has been cast as a referendum on President Gustavo Petro's policies, especially his controversial "total peace" initiative to negotiate with the country's remaining rebel groups. By most accounts, violence tied to armed groups has worsened under Petro's watch. According to Colombia's Electoral Observation Mission, 386 municipalities, or about a third of the country, are vulnerable to violence from illegal armed groups, and data from the Ideas for Peace Foundation think tank indicates that roughly 27,000 people remain under arms nationwide.
Petro has acknowledged that the initiative has failed to achieve its hoped-for outcome of disarming illegal networks, and his approach of being open to talk to every group has hardened up a notch. He has frozen negotiations with some groups because of their continuing violence, while keeping dialogue open with other organizations. Authorities blame the attacks on a rebel faction that rejected a peace agreement signed a decade ago with the Colombian government.
Evolving Threat and Civilian Impact
Drones modified to drop explosives have altered the dynamics of Colombia's armed conflict since 2024, posing one of the greatest threats to civilians and security forces alike, particularly along the Venezuelan border, in northern Bolivar province and in southwestern coastal areas. Guillermo Londoño, a security official in the region of Valle del Cauca, said illegal armed groups in the area have sought to maximize damage through simultaneous, "swarm-style" drone strikes, marking a shift from previous tactics in which attackers would launch attacks with a single drone, reload it, and then resume their assault.
In Robles, a neighboring town in the Jamundi municipality, streets leading to the police station are blocked by improvised barricades, and police are entrenched in sentry posts using shelters made of sandbags and black fabric to scan the sky for approaching drones. Eucaris Zamora said, "You pass by the police station with this sense of dread, looking up, hoping you won't run into a nasty surprise," after she had to vacate her home when a cylinder bomb struck it in October, leaving the building partially destroyed.
In December, gunmen attacked the police station in the small southern town of Buenos Aires, leaving several officers injured and reducing a local bank and nearby homes to rubble. Among the wreckage was the home of 89-year-old Celimo Enrique Aguilar, who said, "I haven't lost faith that, someday, one might be able to live in peace."
The Electoral Divide
A clear divide has emerged among candidates: on one side are those who favor continuing dialogue with illegal groups, such as Sen. Iván Cepeda, of Petro's political movement; on the other are those who say they would dismantle such efforts and prioritize military pressure, such as Sen. Paloma Valencia, of the opposition Democratic Center, and Abelardo de la Espriella, a self-described admirer of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele who has vowed to crack down on illegal armed groups.
Elizabeth Dickinson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said, "Right-wing candidates propose a 'hard-line' response that could exacerbate the violence, because the armed groups will respond to pressure from security forces with terror-style attacks, as they lack the means to respond symmetrically, army-to-army." Officials in the region believe it has become a casualty of Petro's "total peace" strategy, which is aimed at ending one of the world's longest-running conflicts.
Why This Matters:
Colombia's presidential election represents a critical juncture in the nation's approach to internal security, with voters weighing the consequences of a negotiation-focused strategy that has coincided with a fivefold increase in drone attacks. The empirical record under Petro's "total peace" initiative shows that 386 municipalities remain vulnerable to violence and roughly 27,000 people remain under arms nationwide, raising fundamental questions about whether dialogue without credible enforcement mechanisms can achieve sustainable security. The outcome will determine whether Colombia pursues continued negotiations with groups that have rejected a peace agreement signed a decade ago or shifts toward a security-first approach that prioritizes military pressure and rule of law enforcement over accommodation with illegal armed organizations that continue to terrorize civilian populations.