GTA 6 Sick-Day Estimate Puts Workers' Output in Focus

Economics professor José García Montalvo estimated that workers calling out sick to play Grand Theft Auto VI could cut U.S. economic output by nearly $1 billion. His calculation assumes 1 1/2 million absences and about $70,000 in average annual output per worker. The estimate puts a dollar value on production, but the report doesn’t name any company, employer, or public agency that would receive or pay that amount.

Output Counted, Wages Unreported

Montalvo’s calculation uses average annual output, not a reported measure of workers’ wages. The report provides no figures for pay, paid sick leave, employer costs, or revenue from game sales. It therefore estimates lost output, not how time off might affect workers’ income or a company’s profits.

The estimate hinges on 1 1/2 million workers calling out sick. The report doesn’t explain how it arrived at that number, identify the workers’ industries, or break the figure down by city. Nor does it say those absences have happened. The nearly $1 billion estimate applies only if workers take time off to play.

The video game industry is preparing for next month’s release, and many Americans say they plan to call out sick. But the report doesn’t count how many people have made that plan or identify their employers. The projected cost depends on an estimated number of absences; the reported plans themselves remain unquantified.

A Previous Release, a Recorded Absence Rate

When Grand Theft Auto V came out in 2013, reports found that as many as 6% of workers aged 18 to 35 in cities such as Los Angeles and New York took the day off to play. That figure records reported absences for the previous release, but the article doesn’t say the same rate will hold for Grand Theft Auto VI.

Grand Theft Auto VI follows the adventures of a criminal couple navigating the fictional state of Leonida, Rockstar Games said. The game is available for preorder at $79.99. The report lists the preorder price, but offers no sales forecast, expected revenue, production costs, or profit estimate for Rockstar Games.

Delays and the Limits of the Estimate

Rockstar Games unveiled Grand Theft Auto VI in February 2022. The company originally planned to release the game in 2025, but it has delayed the launch multiple times. The report doesn’t explain why or identify any financial effects on the company, workers, or buyers.

The article describes no government action, sick-leave policy, union response, strike, or organized worker campaign. It also reports no proposal to address the projected output loss. Its figures concern estimated absences and average annual output; they don’t show who would capture any gain from the game’s release or how employers and workers would share the cost. NewsNation's Zach Kaplan contributed to the report.