Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, says he isn’t buying the gloomy economic polls. On CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday, he told host Jake Tapper that the numbers don’t match what consumers are actually doing with their money.
“Ahead of an election cycle, the fact that there’s, you know, possibly partisan pollsters telling us that the people are really really depressed, it’s a classic Democrat move, and I just don’t buy it,” Hassett said.
The Spending Argument
Hassett pointed to consumption data as evidence. His reasoning was simple: if the polls reflected real consumer behavior, spending would be falling.
“Because if it were true, if the polls were any value for thinking about what’s going on with consumers, then we should look at the consumption data and say, ‘Geez, yeah, that’s right. People aren’t spending,’” he said. “But, in fact, the retailers are doing well.”
It’s a familiar distinction in economics: what people tell a pollster versus what they do at the register. Hassett is betting on the register.
What the Polls Show
The survey numbers he’s disputing aren’t small. A Quinnipiac University poll found 62 percent of respondents opposed President Trump’s handling of the economy. An Associated Press/NORC Research Center survey found 65 percent said the president’s policies were behind high prices, more than any other economic driver.
In the same AP-NORC survey, more than half of respondents said the national economy and the United States overall had been worse off since the president returned to the White House. Decision Desk HQ’s polling average put Trump’s overall approval rating at 38.5 percent on Sunday morning.
Gas Prices and the War
Republicans face political challenges heading into the midterms, including the unpopular Iran war and tariffs. The conflict has hit the pump. Fighting has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the oil industry.
AAA reported the U.S. average price for a gallon of regular gas at $4.37 on Sunday morning. The average has remained above $4 throughout the Iran war. Few household costs are as visible as gasoline. Few shape voter mood as quickly.
Why This Matters:
The gap between Hassett’s reading of the data and the polling is the central political question of the fall. If retailers are doing well, as he says, households are still spending despite $4-plus gasoline. If the polls are right about voter frustration, that resilience may not carry over to the ballot box. From a market-minded view, spending data tends to reflect real decisions, while polls capture sentiment, and the two don’t always move together. But 65 percent of AP-NORC respondents linking high prices to the president’s policies, with the average price of gas at $4.37, means the administration can’t count on spending figures alone to settle the argument. Tariffs, the Iran war and the closed Strait of Hormuz will all be tested by voters in November.