Egypt's Military Academy Shapes Sisi Succession Plan

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi says a military academy course will help prepare a new generation of national leaders. He has ruled out seeking another term when his mandate ends in 2030. The armed forces will sponsor as many as 1,000 candidates with doctorates, whom El Sisi said the academy would teach “what is a nation and how to protect it.”

At a military ceremony marking the graduation of new cadets on Saturday, El Sisi said the end date of his term was “a total given and will not be debated.” He added that he would not “abandon the state of Egypt before it's rich with its sons who can shoulder the responsibility after me.”

The military's role in succession

Applicants for the academy course must be between 40 and 50; officials will interview and vet them. El Sisi didn't say whether civilians and military personnel alike could apply. Critics on social media suggested the eligibility conditions might require a constitutional amendment.

“The academy will prepare people to know what a nation is and how to protect it,” El Sisi said. “Egypt is not sterile. It's capable of producing a leader a 100 times better than me who can come along and take over. I need the Egyptian people to support this idea.” Graduates, he said, would form the next generation of national leaders.

The military academy has taken on a central role in government. El Sisi has insisted that government employees, including school teachers, mosque imams and diplomats, train there before officials hire or promote them. Some see the process as part of a drive to make the armed forces the country's final authority, with control over important parts of the economy, foreign policy and security.

El Sisi also called on parliament to pass legislation enshrining a constitutional provision that names the armed forces as protector of the state, democracy and Egypt's territorial integrity.

He dismissed as malicious rumours the claim that he was grooming a family member to succeed him. “There is no such thing. The state of Egypt is a very big state and that talk is not feasible or appropriate,” he said.

Earlier in the week, El Sisi announced there would be no constitutional changes to let him remain in power beyond 2030. Some social media posts, including those from accounts known to be linked to the government or security agencies, urged him to stay. He has repeatedly warned against attempts to undermine the state, arguing Egypt couldn't recover if it collapsed.

Constitutional changes and economic pressure

Constitutional amendments adopted in a 2019 national referendum underpin El Sisi's current term. The changes kept a two-term limit but extended presidential terms to six years. A clause counted his first term as beginning in 2018 rather than 2014, when he was first elected. Egypt's constitution was adopted in a nationwide referendum in 2014, three years after Hosni Mubarak was removed from power in an uprising.

Moody's Ratings upgraded Egypt's sovereign credit rating to B3, citing economic reforms, easing inflation and growing business confidence. The upgrade lifted Egypt out of the “substantial risk” category, but the rating remains six notches below investment grade. Moody's gave the country a positive outlook, citing fiscal discipline and reforms that had performed better than expected.

The agency said stronger revenue collection and expenditure restraint supported progress, while fiscal consolidation and structural reforms helped drive the upgrade. It said further improvement could come from stronger growth, more effective revenue collection and a faster decline in domestic borrowing costs as inflation eases and investor confidence strengthens.

Inflation stood at 13.9 per cent in September, according to Capmas data, after the Iran war pushed up oil and gas prices. Egypt, a net energy importer, introduced fuel-saving measures as higher energy costs added to inflation and living costs. Moody's said the authorities adjusted fuel and electricity prices, used expenditure contingencies and energy-conservation measures, and expanded targeted social support.

The agency also cited Egypt's flexible exchange rate, introduced in March 2024, and tighter monetary policy as factors strengthening the economy's ability to absorb shocks. In July, Egypt unlocked about $1.8 billion in funding after clearing the latest review of its expanded economic programme with the International Monetary Fund.