Egypt's Sisi Sets 2030 Exit as Moody's Upgrades Rating

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said his current mandate will end in 2030, while outlining a military academy program to prepare future leaders to understand “what is a nation and how to protect it.” Moody's Ratings upgraded Egypt's sovereign credit rating to B3, citing economic reforms, easing inflation and growing business confidence.

At a military ceremony marking the graduation of new cadets on Saturday, El Sisi said: “My term in office ends in 2030 and this is a total given and will not be debated.” He added that he wouldn't leave the state before it was “rich with its sons who can shoulder the responsibility after me.”

Preparing Future Leaders

El Sisi said the military academy would invite up to 1,000 candidates with doctorates from Egyptian or foreign universities to take a 30-month course. The armed forces will sponsor the program, and its graduates are meant to form a future generation of national leaders.

“The academy will prepare people to know what a nation is and how to protect it ... Egypt is not sterile. It's capable of producing a leader a 100 times better than me who can come along and take over. I need the Egyptian people to support this idea,” El Sisi said.

Applicants must be between 40 and 50. Officials will interview and vet them. El Sisi didn't say whether civilians and military personnel alike could apply. Critics responding on social media suggested the proposed eligibility conditions might require a constitutional amendment.

The military academy has taken on a central role in government in recent years. El Sisi has insisted that government employees, including school teachers, mosque imams and diplomats, train there before officials hire or promote them. Some see the process as part of a drive to make the armed forces the country's final authority, with control over important parts of the economy, foreign policy and security.

El Sisi also called on parliament to pass legislation enshrining a constitutional provision that names the armed forces as protector of the state, democracy and Egypt's territorial integrity. He rejected as malicious rumours the claim that he was grooming a family member to succeed him, saying: “There is no such thing. The state of Egypt is a very big state and that talk is not feasible or appropriate.”

Earlier in the week, El Sisi announced there would be no constitutional changes to let him remain in power beyond 2030. Some social media posts, including posts from accounts known to be linked to the government or security agencies, urged him to stay. He has repeatedly warned against attempts to undermine the state, arguing Egypt couldn't recover if it collapsed.

Regional Pressures and Economic Outlook

Many Egyptians regard El Sisi as a safe pair of hands amid wars in Gaza, east of Egypt, and Sudan, to its south, as well as political instability in Libya, on its western border. The fallout from the Iran war, including Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, has raised Egypt's already high energy import bills and reduced Suez Canal revenue. Supporters credit his government with maintaining stability; critics point to heavy domestic and foreign borrowing, infrastructure projects that may take years to generate meaningful returns, and the unresolved dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile.

El Sisi says spending on infrastructure and modern transport, including a Cairo monorail, an advanced electric train network and a new administrative capital, will help attract substantial foreign investment. He has accused Ethiopia of exploiting the turmoil after Mubarak's removal in 2011 to begin construction of the massive dam on the Blue Nile, the Nile's main tributary and the source of more than 80 per cent of water flowing downstream.

Moody's said its B3 upgrade reflected progress in fiscal consolidation, stronger revenue collection and reduced government debt and interest burdens. The rating lifted Egypt out of the “substantial risk” category, though it remains six notches below investment grade. The agency gave Egypt a positive outlook, citing fiscal discipline and reforms that performed better than expected.

Egypt's shift to a flexible exchange rate since March 2024, alongside tighter monetary policy, strengthened external buffers and the economy's ability to absorb shocks, Moody's said. Inflation stood at 13.9 per cent in September, according to Capmas data, after higher oil and gas prices raised costs for the net energy importer. In July, Egypt unlocked about $1.8 billion in funding after clearing the latest review of its expanded economic programme with the International Monetary Fund.