Egypt has repeatedly warned against any scenario that would result in the mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula, and the warning sharpened after U.S. President Donald Trump floated proposals suggesting Gaza's population should be relocated elsewhere in the region as part of a broader postwar plan. The language changes, the machinery doesn’t. Cairo called the idea a strategic red line, saying that absorbing large numbers of Palestinians would alter Egypt's national security, threaten Sinai's stability, and permanently undermine the Palestinian cause.
The Border as a Pressure Valve
The current Israeli government, described in the article as the most right-wing in the country's history, includes senior ministers who have ruled out Palestinian statehood and encouraged Palestinian relocation from Gaza. That puts Israel at odds with much of the Arab world, including Egypt, while ordinary people in Gaza remain the ones treated as movable parts in a regional security plan.
Egypt has spent the past decade modernizing its armed forces, purchasing advanced fighter aircraft, naval vessels, submarines, and air defense systems while expanding military infrastructure across the country. Israeli analysts, including Lt. Col. (res.) Eli Dekel, do not see Egypt as an immediate military threat, but there is broad concern that much of the new equipment exceeds the requirements of Egypt's sustained counterinsurgency effort in Sinai. The state keeps buying, the people keep paying, and the border keeps getting thicker.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi inaugurated Egypt's new State Strategic Command Headquarters, known as the "Octagon," on Saturday in the New Administrative Capital east of Cairo. The ceremony included the signing of the facility's official charter and the raising of the Armed Forces flag over one of the Middle East's most ambitious military command centers. Egyptian state information described the complex as covering about 22,000 acres and comprising 13 strategic and logistical zones. The site includes eight interconnected octagonal outer buildings arranged around two central command structures. The Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, covers about 29 acres as a building, while the wider Pentagon reservation is far smaller than the Egyptian complex. The Pentagon has about 6.5 million square feet of floor space. The Octagon has been reported to have about 50.5 million square feet, or roughly 4.6 million square meters, of floor area.
Cold Peace, Hot Security
The headquarters' opening capped years of major military buildup and drew renewed attention in Israel, where Egypt's expanding military capabilities have long generated concern among some analysts. Egypt and Israel share a border, and together they form Gaza's two land borders, giving both countries a direct stake in the war's fallout. Since Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, relations between Jerusalem and Cairo have become more strained. While the two countries continue to coordinate on security matters, the war has exposed deep disagreements over Gaza's future and security arrangements along their shared frontier.
Israel's border with Egypt is about 152 miles long and is one of Israel's quietest. Yet relations have never truly warmed. Lt. Col. (res.) Eli Dekel said, "It is not really cold peace as Israelis like to define it, but more like a cold war between the countries with no shots being fired." He added, "What we are seeing is a marked deterioration in comments made in Egyptian media and by officials. Since the war, the amount of loathing and hate has skyrocketed." Mariam Wahba, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said, "Public diplomacy has grown increasingly confrontational, with Cairo adopting sharper rhetoric, pursuing legal and diplomatic pressure against Israel, and expressing concern over the trajectory of the war in Gaza." She added, "At the same time, many of the mechanisms that matter most, particularly security coordination, have continued because neither side can afford a complete breakdown. The result is a relationship that is politically colder but strategically resilient."
Despite the tensions, the peace accords remain intact. Neither country has formally downgraded relations, though Egypt has not appointed a replacement for its former ambassador to Israel and has delayed approval of Israel's new envoy to Cairo. Michael Harari, a former Israeli ambassador and policy fellow at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, said, "This is really impressive." He added, "However, Egypt increasingly views Israel as unpredictable, and Israeli suggestions that Egypt's military buildup constitutes a threat only add to the tensions."
The Treaty Holds, the People Don’t Decide
Israeli analysts have pointed to a gradual increase in Egyptian forces along the border, saying some deployments exceed limits set by the peace agreement. Under the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, the Sinai Peninsula is divided into zones with strict limits on Egyptian forces. The recent deployment of regular army and mechanized units into areas closest to the Israeli border has raised strategic concern within Israeli security circles. Dekel said, "From the day the peace agreement was signed, it was temporary in the eyes of the Egyptians." He added, "There are currently four times more forces than agreed to along the border." He also said, "Israel has enough threats; it does not need to deal with the huge Egyptian military in addition."
Israel has also increased defense spending and carried out operations across the region during the war. Harari said, "Both sides have an interest in upholding the agreement." He added, "However, there is increasing concern in Egypt about the lack of willingness in the Israeli government to engage in political dialogue with the Palestinians, while encouraging relocation from Gaza."
Sinai is home to several terrorist organizations that continue to challenge the government of el-Sisi. The issue of military presence along the border became even more sensitive after Israeli forces took control of a narrow strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border known as the Philadelphi Corridor. That move raised disputes over security arrangements established under previous agreements. Egypt has insisted that any changes to border arrangements must respect existing understandings, while Israel has argued that tighter control is necessary to prevent the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.
Despite growing tensions, security cooperation between Israel and Egypt has never completely stopped. For years, the two countries have coordinated closely against jihadist groups operating in Sinai. Israel has supported Egypt's counterterrorism campaign through intelligence sharing and by approving temporary increases in Egyptian troop deployments in Sinai beyond the limits originally established in the peace treaty. That cooperation reflects the reality that the peace agreement serves vital interests for both sides. For Israel, peace removed the threat of a conventional war with a major Arab military. For Egypt, the treaty ensured decades of border stability and vital U.S. military assistance.
Harari said, "It leaves Egypt free to deal with greater threats in the region." He added, "Israel isn't supposed to see Egypt's military buildup as a threat." Mariam Wahba said, "Egypt's regional ambitions are, for the time being, not primarily directed at confronting Israel." She added, "Egypt's security environment is increasingly complex, with conflict in Sudan, instability in Libya, tensions with Ethiopia and mounting domestic pressures all competing for Cairo's attention." Wahba also said, "Egypt's military modernization deserves careful attention, especially given the scale and speed. But it should not automatically be interpreted as preparation for conflict."
The inauguration of the Octagon comes at a delicate moment. Its unveiling draws attention in Israel, where the combination of Egypt's military modernization, ongoing border disagreements and the Palestinian issue raises questions about the long-term trajectory of the relationship. Wahba concluded, "The peace treaty has repeatedly proven more durable than the political relationship surrounding it ... because it reflects enduring strategic interest rather than mutual trust." She added, "The war has made cooperation more complicated and more necessary than ever."