The World Bank reported that the El Nino event which began 29 years ago, in 1997, resulted in 23,000 deaths from weather disasters, increased poverty rates in certain nations, and cost governments up to $45 billion. Now, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states that an intensifying El Nino has an 81% chance of reaching “very strong” status by fall. This top category, if realized, would rank it among the most intense El Ninos since the agency began tracking them 76 years ago, in 1950.
El Nino, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific, shifts global weather patterns. Its most significant impacts, ranging from droughts to downpours and heat waves, are anticipated primarily in the fall and winter months. This current El Nino formed only last month, quickly moving past the weak stage to become moderate, with no signs of slowing its strengthening, according to the government forecast.
Ocean temperatures in key Pacific regions, crucial indicators of El Nino’s strength, are currently at or near record highs for this time of year. Meteorologists attribute this partly to the phenomenon occurring on top of ocean warming linked to human-caused climate change. Emily Becker, a University of Miami scientist collaborating with the NOAA El Nino forecast team, described the situation as “pretty extreme,” noting it is “Not unprecedented, but very unusual.” Becker expects this El Nino to rival the 1997-1998 event, while other meteorologists predict it could be even stronger.
The Elite Forecast
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, emphasized that “This is not a run-of-the-mill El Nino.” He pointed out that it is already breaking records for this time of year and, unlike previous super El Ninos, it is layered over considerable background warming from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas. Swain suggested that “We might not expect to see the exact same impacts from this event as we have seen in historical ones.”
Becker clarified that a “very strong” El Nino does not directly translate to more intense extreme weather, but rather increases the likelihood of such conditions. It boosts the chances for most of the southern U.S. to experience a rainier winter. It also raises the probability of warmer winter conditions across the northern United States and Canada. Globally, increased likelihoods include a drier Indonesia and a warmer, wetter eastern Pacific, Becker added.
Interestingly, El Nino typically dampens the Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University, a pioneer in hurricane season forecasts, significantly reduced its prediction for the number of storms yesterday, citing “increased confidence in a strong or very strong El Nino.” Forecasters now anticipate overall hurricane activity in the Atlantic will be “well below normal.”
Globalist Narratives and Future Costs
Swain, in a blog post, explained that El Nino also functions as a “thermostat” for global climate. It releases years’ worth of accumulated heat stored in the subsurface tropical Pacific Ocean, dumping it into the atmosphere, where it eventually dissipates after warming the entire planet. Many climate scientists are now predicting that 2027, due to this pent-up heat, will break the 2024 global high temperature record, which was set by the last strong El Nino. Zack Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central, stated, “A strong El Nino would raise the odds of dramatic new climate records over the next 6 to 12 months,” suggesting it could offer a glimpse of an even warmer world to come.