The World Bank reported that the 1997 El Nino event caused 23,000 deaths and increased poverty in several nations. Today, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the current El Nino has an 81% chance of becoming “very strong” by fall, potentially rivaling the most intense events recorded since tracking began 76 years ago. This intensifying natural warming is compounded by human-driven climate change, a direct consequence of the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas by industries driven by profit.
This powerful El Nino, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific that shifts global weather patterns, formed only last month. It has already moved past its weak stage. Government forecasts indicate no signs of slowing its strengthening. Its most severe impacts, including droughts, downpours, and heat waves, are expected to hit during the fall and winter months.
Capital's Climate Debt
Ocean temperatures in critical Pacific regions, key indicators of El Nino’s intensity, are currently at or near record highs for this time of year. Meteorologists confirm that this additional warming is partly due to human-driven climate change. Emily Becker, a University of Miami scientist on the NOAA El Nino forecast team, called the situation “pretty extreme,” noting it's “not unprecedented, but very unusual.” She believes this El Nino will match the 1997-1998 event, while other experts suggest it could be even stronger.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, stated plainly, “This is not a run-of-the-mill El Nino.” He highlighted that it's already breaking records for this period. Unlike previous super El Ninos, this one is occurring on top of significant background warming, directly resulting from the relentless burning of fossil fuels by industries prioritizing profit. Swain warned that the impacts may not precisely mirror historical patterns.
The Human Cost
Becker clarified that a “very strong” El Nino doesn't guarantee more intense extreme weather, but it significantly raises the probability of such conditions. It increases the chances for most of the southern U.S. to experience a rainier winter. It also boosts the likelihood of warmer winter conditions across the northern United States and Canada. Globally, Indonesia faces a drier period, while the eastern Pacific is expected to be warmer and wetter.
El Nino typically dampens the Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University, a leader in hurricane forecasting, dramatically reduced its prediction for the number of storms yesterday. They cited increased confidence in a strong or very strong El Nino. Forecasters now expect overall hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be “well below normal.”
Swain explained that El Nino acts as a “thermostat” for the global climate. It releases years of accumulated heat stored in the subsurface tropical Pacific Ocean, dumping it into the atmosphere. This process warms the entire planet before the heat eventually dissipates. Many climate scientists are predicting that 2027, fueled by this pent-up heat, will break the 2024 global high temperature record. Zack Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central, stated that “A strong El Nino would raise the odds of dramatic new climate records over the next 6 to 12 months,” offering a glimpse into an even warmer world. The state, through agencies like NOAA, documents these escalating crises, yet the structural drivers of capital accumulation remain unchallenged.