Tropical Cyclone Maila destroyed seaweed farms in Solomon Islands in April, and shifting weather is disrupting aquaculture livelihoods across Solomon Islands, Fiji and Palau. Farmers say rain, heat, wind and changing tides have made familiar seasonal knowledge less dependable. Forecasters warn that the 2026-27 El Niño could become a “super” event.
China’s National Climate Centre says El Niño is developing rapidly and could become the strongest since instrumental records began. In the first half of August, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific stood more than 2.5°C above normal.
Local knowledge under pressure
Each morning, Wilfred Luiramo, owner of Haleta Seaweed in Solomon Islands’ Western Province, checks his seaweed stakes, clears debris and examines each line. Recent continuous rain has forced him to wait. “The weather pattern keeps changing and it’s impossible to predict,” he said. “Today it will rain, tomorrow it’s sunny, and it keeps changing all the time.”
Seaweed needs suitable temperatures, salinity, currents and tides. The crop also needs sunlight to dry before packaging and sale. “Sometimes, we do not have sunlight for the whole week,” Luiramo said. “When there is constant rainfall, the seaweed cannot dry because we use sunlight to dry the products. When the seaweed products are slow to dry, we cannot package and sell them. This affects the income of everyone in the community.”
Luiramo said low tides lasted from June through August, beyond the usual period around June. “El Niño is already here, and we need to quickly adapt,” he said. The shifting conditions compound longer-term climate change. Island farmers rely on local knowledge of tides, rainfall, temperatures and seasonal patterns to decide when to plant, harvest or wait.
Across the Pacific Islands, aquaculture generates an estimated US$130-180 million a year, roughly 0.5 per cent of regional GDP. Fisheries and aquaculture make up 7 per cent of Solomon Islands’ national GDP. In Wagina, seaweed farmers can earn US$1,200 a month, compared with a national average annual income of US$800.
Household income and food production
In Fiji, households that farm tilapia can earn US$1,600 gross and about US$700 net per production cycle. More than 350 tilapia farms operate in the country, mostly at subsistence and semi-commercial levels. Fiji produces about 400 tonnes a year, making it the Pacific’s largest tilapia producer. Fiji introduced Genetically Improved Farmed Tilapia in 1998 to support long-term food security and rural livelihoods.
Katarina Senabu Baleisuva checks the water quality in her ponds and feeds the fish three times a day. Heat lowers pond water levels; rain can chill the water and flood ponds. “It really affects our production. We’re finding it hard to make a livelihood,” she said. Baleisuva has dug additional ponds with some government support, but said she struggles to find financial support for aquaculture. She also farms crops because, as she put it, “I cannot rely on aquaculture alone.”
Tarusila Veibi, a mud crab farmer, said dry, cold and windy conditions are affecting trees, soil, pasture and river levels. She rotates her cattle to find green pasture and plants crops in swampy areas that haven’t dried out. In Fiji, wild mud crab fishers—88 per cent of whom are Indigenous women—can earn 60-70 Fijian dollars a week selling crabs, fish and other marine resources to cover school fees and daily needs.
In Palau, unusually hot, dry weather has parched soil, browned grass and warmed tap water. High coastal water temperatures and low rainfall have accelerated algae growth in Patty Kloulechad’s giant clam cages, smothering the clams. She now cleans the cages at the lowest tides. Her community is also switching to weather-resilient crops and moving vulnerable crops closer to home.
Requests for practical support
Farmers are changing their routines and conserving water. Baleisuva has dug boreholes. Near creeks, some tilapia farmers fill standby ponds during droughts, grow vegetables alongside fish and reuse pond water. Water tanks support households and farm work, including washing seaweed and fish cages.
Baleisuva said rural farmers are left behind and their voices aren’t heard. Luiramo’s community has maintained seaweed farming through solidarity for around 40 years. He called for policies that bring together local knowledge, seaweed expertise and scientific research. “The existing gaps between government and communities delay responses to farmers’ needs,” he said.
Luiramo said farmers must monitor their products and the weather, then act when conditions become favourable. Baleisuva advised farmers not to rely on one commodity, while Veibi urged them to prepare before conditions worsen. Kloulechad said her community reviews past strategies, adapts practices and conserves existing resources.