A coordinated international effort to electrify transportation, heating, and industry could slash global energy demand in half while saving trillions of dollars for consumers and businesses, experts told UN climate negotiators recently at preparatory talks in Bonn ahead of the forthcoming Cop31 climate summit this November.
Electrifying the world with electric vehicles, electric heating and cooling, and modernized heavy industry could be the next biggest step toward phasing out fossil fuels, replacing the 80% of global energy that still comes from hydrocarbons. Using electrical energy is much more efficient than combustion, and the move could save billions of dollars for consumers and businesses; one estimate said global energy demand could be halved.
A Missing Piece of Climate Action
For decades, electrification was a backwater of global climate action, but in the last two weeks at the Bonn talks, the subject took center stage. Turkey's environment minister, Murat Kurum, who will co-host the Cop31 summit this November, said: "Without electrification, we won't be able to reach any of the targets [of the Paris agreement], so we must go through this transformation. Whether you call it the missing piece of the puzzle or the most important tool that we have in our toolkit, this is the case."
Turkey, with the support of Australia, which is co-president of Cop31, has proposed setting a target of 35% of final energy to come from electricity by 2035. Kurum said: "This is the most important pillar in reducing emissions – you need to increase electrification in cities, in manufacturing, in [all aspects of life], and will serve us in the bigger picture, the bigger targets [of the Paris agreement]."
Prof Jan Rosenow from Oxford University said electric technology is now ready for widespread takeup and offers efficiencies three to five times greater than fossil fuel counterparts. "I call it electro-efficiency," he said. "It's the inbuilt efficiency of electric technology compared with fossil fuels." Rosenow has estimated, in a forthcoming paper, that a global switch to electrification would halve energy demand and produce savings that would quickly reach trillions of dollars globally, freeing up cash for governments, businesses and consumers to spend on better ends, from health and education to defense.
The electrification target marked a step change after years with little mention at Cops, in part because the technology for electrification lagged behind that for renewable generation. China has moved to mass manufacture electric vehicles, bringing prices down, while heat pumps have also come down in price, though less dramatically, and can save consumers hundreds of pounds on their energy bills. Industrial processes are also increasingly switching to cheap renewable energy.
Science Under Attack
The push to electrify was the highlight of two weeks of talks in Bonn that otherwise offered little to cheer. After a cordial start to the annual meeting, held roughly at the halfway point between annual climate Cop summits, by the final days the negotiations descended into near-farce, with some countries refusing to agree wording that would base decisions on "the best available science," despite this being a cornerstone of climate agreements for more than 30 years. The talks, which were supposed to lay the groundwork for Cop31, finished on Thursday evening with many issues unresolved.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: "We have seen side-stepping and stalling. We've seen geopolitical tensions wash through these halls. We simply cannot afford to reopen previous decisions, to renegotiate existing targets, or to backslide. It's cooperation, not fierce competition, that we need."
The biggest rows were over climate science and the 1.5C goal. In a strand of the talks known as "research and systematic observations," some countries led by Saudi Arabia and the Arab group of nations, but also including India, objected to language reaffirming climate science and argued that research by scientists in rich countries dominated submissions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Sivendra Michael, speaking on behalf of the Pacific Island nations, said: "We are hearing voices in these rooms that are doing their best to undermine science. Anyone blocking references to science, they are not our friends." He added: "There are powerful interests desperate to protect their wealth and influence. We are seeing certain countries holding the [UN] process hostage as vulnerable people suffer heat stress and storms, droughts and famine."
Surangel Whipps, the president of the Pacific nation of Palau, told a separate conference in Germany: "We know we won't make the 1.5C target, but what we need to do is not give up."
Finance Remains a Barrier
Climate finance remained a huge stumbling block as developed countries continued to cut overseas aid and prioritize military spending. Poor countries were furious that rich nations were dragging their feet on fulfilling a previously set goal to triple the funding they provide for adaptation to the impacts of the climate crisis. Pooja Dave, the adaptation policy coordinator at Climate Action Network International, said: "What we saw was clear bad faith and unwillingness by developed countries to make progress on the global goal on adaptation. You cannot implement the GGA without finance."
Greater harmony was on show over the "just transition," a key issue for campaigners referring to the need to ensure that workers affected by the move to a low-carbon economy are supported and protected from exploitation. Camila Mercure, the climate policy coordinator at Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, said the discussions had been constructive. "While [the talks] exposed significant differences among parties, they also showed there is a pathway to a meaningful outcome [on a just transition] at Cop31. Governments must now engage constructively to make that happen."
At last year's Cop30 summit in Brazil, attempts to get countries to restate their commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" were stymied, but more than 50 countries held their own conference this year in April to discuss such a phaseout.
Some countries are already far ahead. Japan has nearly reached the target of 35% of energy to come from electricity that the Cop31 presidency is proposing. China is nearly at 30%, the US lags at 22%, India and Brazil are about 20%, and globally the figure is 21%.
Even the Cop measures on electrification, though widely accepted as necessary to meet scientific advice to reduce emissions to net zero by mid-century, face an uphill struggle to gain acceptance within the byzantine processes of the Cop. While the US is the only major country absent from the UN talks, the influence of Donald Trump's presidency was felt within the negotiating halls. One negotiator said: "Saudi Arabia has taken more of an obvious role [in disrupting progress], and part of that is because the US used to play a role in holding them back." The negotiator added that Saudi Arabia has allies among the Gulf states, which work together as the Arab group, and has been joined by India on some issues, Russia on several, and even by Kenya, usually a strong supporter of climate action. "People feel they can do this because of what they see coming from the US now," the negotiator said.
Why This Matters:
The electrification proposal represents a concrete pathway to reduce emissions while delivering substantial economic relief to households and businesses struggling with energy costs. Heat pumps can save consumers hundreds of pounds on their energy bills, while the broader transition could free up trillions of dollars globally for essential public services like health and education. However, the Bonn talks revealed how fossil fuel interests and geopolitical tensions continue to obstruct progress on climate action, even as vulnerable communities face heat stress, storms, droughts and famine. The refusal by some nations to reaffirm basic climate science and the failure of wealthy countries to honor their financial commitments to adaptation funding demonstrate the gap between what science demands and what political will can deliver. For workers in carbon-intensive industries, the emphasis on a just transition offers critical protections against exploitation during the economic shift. The success or failure of electrification targets at Cop31 will determine whether the world can meet Paris agreement goals while ensuring the benefits of clean energy reach those who need them most.